Ok, it doesn’t get much uglier than it was last week in the markets. Is this 2008 all over again? Are things getting so bad here that it’s time to throw more money at and take a gambling chance? We are talking about our retirement money, it is not very wise to do that on a regular basis. I’m not one to take many chances, but we might have an oppourtunity here to make a little quickly if we can get it in a timely manner and have a bailout plan in case I’m wrong. So first let’s look at the 2 charts that I have nothing on and then look at the two that we have something to talk about.
The Small Cap has done nothing but sink and break level after level. I’ve got nothing here. We are breaking down threw levels that date back to Setember 2013. This wek we broke down through the longest uptrend line that dates back to March 2009. It looks bad at the moment and I cannot find a point that even looks good to gamble on here. We are at extreme oversold levels on almost every single type of charting, but the issue is, where and when to pick a spot? I’m extremely afraid of the Small Cap at this point.
The International is just ugly. I’ve got nothing here at all. We are breaking down even faster than the downtrend channel than we have been following since January 2015. We are extremly oversold.
Bonds continue their march to higher prices a little bit at a time. The first early entry buy caome on 1/13/16. Yes we had a mention of it last week, but this week it was confirmed. I would still like to see prices close above and outside the red downtrend line, but not required. We are also closing in on the current monthly level. So there are many things to like here and it is slower moving and safer. You can throw money here and feel much safer than in of our other indexes.
Ok, the S&P 500 is also a disaster but a disaster that you could take a gamble on. Look at where price finished this week. We are sitting right at a support level that was defended by buyers last August and again in September. Looking at the 5 minute CHART, you can see that last Friday it was defended again. That $1870 level looks key to me. Looking at the long range Monthly chart, you can see we still haven’t broken down through that solid green uptrend line. This next bit might be hard to follow, but the extreme levels of the DMI graph at the bottom of the Daily chart is indicating that we are extremely oversold and it’s time for at least a pop back to the upside. It could be a short burst up, but it’s due. I need to show you the fear level now.
Click that picture and read how it is determined. Listen to the video. Should we take a gamble here that everyone is running away and now is the time? What if we had rules to save us from disaster?
So here is my plan. The market is closed Monday but it will give us an idea what is going to happen Tuesday because the world markets are open. Come Tuesday if it not a total malay into the depths of hell, we go all in C-fund only as long as we are above $1857 and not above $1900 by 11:30am. If we get in, starting Wednesday, if we close below $1870, then Thursday morning we go all G or 50G and 50F. But, if Thursday morning by 11:30 we are back above $1870, we give it another day. We continue this until we are out or we get a big move up and then nose back over. It’s risky, but at least it has some logic and levels to play with.
So there you have it. We are into a very messy start to 2016 and one that could continue for awhile. So the above is mentioned for a shot only. If it fails, hopefully it will not be to bad.
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