Things just keep rolling like there is no end in sight. As you can see with the top chart, the S&P500 was up another 1.39% for the week. The most impressive move by far was the Small Cap with a 2.45% jump for the week. So if you have money in the C and the S, as I do, you made a killing this week. The only disappointment was the European index with only a .07% jump for the week, which was surprising considering the news out of Egypt Friday. Now is the time to monitor the markets carefully and not let your guard down. If you start to hear lot’s of people bragging about how great the market is or they are just now starting to put money in, then the end may be near. When everyone is talking happiness and joy in the market is when it is more likely getting ready to nose over. Is this gloom and doom? I’m I predicting a top or reversal? Nope, it will never happen here, but I’m saying to watch closely because we have had a nice long run with no major pull back. Take a look at the year returns so far. Those numbers are more than you can get for an entire year in a bank.
The second chart shows you my actual moves and distribution in our TSP accounts. How to read it? Green area is the fund price columns, yellow fund allocation, and orange is return. 2010 Price on grey line is the starting prices for the year. The first line below this is my first allocation for the year that ran through 1/18/11 and to the right you can see the return I got per fund, in blue my return for the period, and in purple accumulated return for the year. So with each new allocation, there will be one line that is closed and a new one opened and the current allocation will always be the last line. So, you can see that my year to date return as of this past Friday is 7.8%. Not to shabby, but holding onto that for the rest of the year will be the task.
Last neat thing to show is how I compare to all the other funds as individual funds. What I want to see below my number is all positive numbers because that shows how much I beat those funds by. So with that information you can see that I beat the G-fund from 1/1/11 to 2/11/11 by 7.6%.
C-fund and S-fund there is really nothing to talk about unless your on the outside looking in wishing you where in. You should have or already have some money invested in these funds. What can a I say about the G-fund that you do not already know? Nothing, this is your safe house if you have no stomach or the market has turned negative.
Now that leaves us with the F and the I funds. These are the only two I will focus on this week because they are the ones that are and could be causing grief shortly.
Ok, open the chart to the left and give me one good reason to be in the I-fund. This has been ugly since November 4th and only showed a glimmer of hope when it was tracking sideways the last of December and first part of January. Nine of the last 10 days it has basically been in a free fall and only this past Friday did it show a green day. It needs two of those in a row plus a third half way through the day to even justify considering this fund. To much action in the C, S, and I to risk losing money here. I would much rather be at least in the G, before considering the F-fund.
This leaves us with the I-fund or International Fund. Sometimes I use European fund in talking here, but International is actually better terminology. We are in up trend here, but the last two days have turned somewhat negative. We have two reds in a row and that means that Monday we or I may bailout. The $59.57 level that we broke out of is now support and we need to hold that. If we were to go below this level, a bailout is required with no question. Based on the action in Egypt, I’m really surprised to see the reds, but this is not what I base moves on. The chart, price, and volume is where it’s at, so I have to read what I see. So caution is the word and watch close Monday for news if you have monies invested here. If we are red and all markets are down, I will likely use one of my moves and bailout of the I-fund.
TSP distribution: C-fund 40%, S-fund 40%, I-fund 20%
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