TSP Update Oct 28,2011

Pretty impressive stuff this stock market crap. Yep, in less than 19 trading days we almost completely wiped the slate clean and now we are starting over. It sure fooled a lot of people like me, but not totally. I may not have ridden her from the bottom edge, but I’m holding my own. I made a move this week but didn’t post it and if you were looking for guidance, sorry. To be honest I can’t really tell if anyone reads this thing but me, so it is easy to loose interest in posting and just make my moves without putting a post up. I think if you like reading this for whatever reason, you should let it be known so maybe I will post more often, specially when I make a move. Now to my move.

So last Friday the 21st, I told myself that if the market was going up and holding above $1230, I was going to get back into the market. If you open the chart to the left it will only show through last Friday the 21st. Notice that we broke through $1220 line and then followed that with a breakout above $1230. Those lines where Red and were called Resistance lines, but once you go through them, they convert to support. Well we punched through, so all that I had to do was wait for Monday.

So come Monday, if the open the second chart to the left, you will see we continued to climb and hold above $1230. I had no option but to make my entry this day. As risky as it looks on this chart, looking at the weekly, there was no risk at all and actually looked a little early. Open the little picture and take a look at that weekly chart and see how early it is in the recovery and how much room there is to run before we hit any major resistance and you will see what I’m talking about. So you haven’t missed the boat, you just didn’t get in at the bottom. So what!! Protect yourself and ride the main wave up if you can, do not worry about getting in at the bottom.

Come Tuesday and Wednesday I was thinking I was in trouble, but I was hoping that $1230 and $1220 would hold up. It was looking shaking, but come Thursday morning we jumped back up above support and now we back into the green for 2011. Me personally, I’m down just over 1% for Year to date, not for the year. I personally think that we now have confirmation with the Small Cap, Nasdaq, and the Dow30, so I will stay long. I will also be waiting for another high pivot low before I slide my last 30% back into the market.

Conclusion: I still believe we are really very early in a possible recovery. The initial signs are there, but somethings still lag a bit. The Advance Decline line is still in a downtrend, but is very close to breaking through. Bonds are in a downtrend, but hinting that they may be reversing. Gold is starting to recover and appears to be climbing out of it’s recent pullbacks, but to early to tell. The European indexes are showing a little life, but is still in a confirmed downtrend in the Weekly and Daily chart. The European needs to breakout to the plus side next week or the next to help confirm this new uptrend in the US Market. So be cautious, and tip toe back into the market, you got time.

TSP Distribution: G-fund – 30%, C-fund 35%, S-fund 35%