TSP weekly update 10/21/2011

In the above chart I just want to point out that I added Bonds and or the F-fund tracker just so we know what is going on there also. If you open the S&P500 daily charts you will see that we had a very volatile week with some wild swings, but ended up breaking through a August 31, 2011 resistance level. By all indication this would mean that we should move forward from here. The monthly numbers for October are just incredible and if you rode that from the bottom, unlike me, well done you. This week kind of confused me to no end. Without looking at any further charts, let’s just examine the weekly numbers in the chart at the top of this page. The S&P500 was up 1.12% and the DOW 30 up 1.41%, but that is where it ends. The Small Cap’s barely follow the trend with a .45% gain and the NASDAQ actually fell –1.14%. The European index came in with a loss of .08% which is basically no trend whatsoever. I guess what bothers me is that if we are going to bust through this sideways trend you would expect all indexes to follow suit. The one that bothers me the most is NASDAQ. These are all the tech companies that normally pave the way for the rest. So like you, I’m a little confused at the moment and not sure I want to do anything with my funds other than watch from the safety of G. The only thing I lose is the gains that accelerate fast than the G, but I have no risk of that big swing down.

Below is a a quote from ST50.com by Ivon Hoff. I could have not said it better so please read.

It feels like this market wants to go higher but it is still scared. There are good arguments for both the bull and the bear side. On the long side, we have the seasonality, the better than expected earnings season so far and performance anxiety. On the short side, we have the unresolved credit crisis in Europe and the potential contagion effect. Many make the argument that the worst has been already discounted by the market, but the truth is that this is still a headline driven market and the situation could turn 180 degrees in a blink of an eye.

After looking at the NASDAQ, Small Cap, Bonds, and European indexes, I think I will once again stand by and watch to see if the S&P 500 can hold above the $1230 line. If it does, then maybe I will be ready to put my toe back into the water.

TSP Distribution: G-fund – 100%