TSP Distribution: S-fund 50%, C-fund 50%
The Stock market will be closed tomorrow, Friday 3/29, and next Monday is April 1st, so end of month closing numbers are official today. This will also be the end of week numbers and 1st quarter numbers for the year.
To hear the news today when I got home we should be swimming in money because the stock market is hitting record highs on a lot of different indexes. The Dow Jones is the one that makes the news the most and let me tell you right here how dumb that is. How many stocks are in the Dow Jones? 30 Do you really think you can tell what the US economy is doing looking or tracking 30 stocks? Stand by while I chuckle! The S&P 500 is a better indicator because there are 500 different stocks being tracked there. Our Small Cap index, $DWCPF has 3500 stocks being tracked and those are the indexes you should be listening to, not the Dow Jones 30, or DJ30. Another good reason to stop listening to the news. But my rambling aside, we did have a new all time closing high on the S&P 500 and the Small Cap. That is pretty cool stuff. But with all this cool stuff did we really have such a great week? Not really, up until todays close, we were down for the week in almost every L-fund, International Index and at one point Small Cap and S&P500. Monthly we kicked ass and YTD, we have also kicked ass. Next two paragraphs are rants, so you might want to skip’em.
Ok be honest with yourself. How many here stayed in with me the entire year so far 2013, not because of what I said, but because of the charts? I talk to quite a few folks at work and I can only think of 2, maybe 3. I’m ok with each individual doing their own thing but I’m here to educate my sons on their retirement and those with open ears. Yes, Kauffman, you are one of them with open ears. Here is my point. Click this and notice the date of the post, and what I was talking about in the first paragraph. Did you read it? Well have we reached it yet? Ok, I’ll spill the beans, Have we reached the TOP yet? We have traveled 2 months beyond when I first mentioned top calling at work and on the news, so are we there? I have no clue! I have no indication, nothing, to lead me to think that we are at the top. So if you listen to rumors, news and this is what happened last year and it is likely to happen again this year, where did it get you? Did it give you an exit signal? Did it give you an entry signal? Show it to me please. Show me your plan. Show me your system.
If you had a car worth $1000 and you where selling it and someone offered you $2000, would you take it? My point? Price pays and only price. If the United States is in severe debt and we are printing money to cover it, price still pays. If the banking system collapses in this country or somewhere else, price pays. So, if the S&P 500 / C-fund are continually making new highs and I’m in and your out, who gets paid? Same thing go for stocks. If a company has never made a profit and never reported a profit but price continues to go up and I’m in and your out, who gets paid? I cannot control all the stuff in background but I can follow a damn chart. Price goes up and price goes down. Now all I have to do is time it correctly using the indicators that I have learned. End of story. You truly need to focus your energy on what price is doing and not what is or not causing price to move. Why predict, when you can see price move.
Back on track. So look at the YTD numbers for 2013 and Monthly numbers for March, you think they are great? Think they are to high and it will never happen again. Well, well, well, guess where we were exactly a year ago. CLICK. Is that awesome or what? The only index that suffered this year, but still made money so far this year was the International Index. It’s great writing a blog sometimes because you can go back in time and see where and what. I’m just a little disappointed that I didn’t do as well as last year.
April? What is the norm and what can we expect. I use to spend energy looking and sometimes it is fun to see.Click Here and that will show you what we did in each fund for the last 12 months, which includes last April. I will tell you this, the last few years May has been a mess and now I’m leery of that month, but I will try to disregard that information and make logical decisions as that month approaches.
Ok, I mentioned that we made new highs today in the C and S funds. Are we still in the Bull Flags or busting out with a new buy signal? Bonds did fire a buy signal today but I didn’t take it. I like where I am at the moment and see no reason to put money into safety. I will discuss the charts and where we are and what I think we should do tomorrow.
In the very near future, I’m going to attempt to put a few educational post together for Pivot points, CBL’s, and drawing trend lines. Not going to spend much time on moving averages because everyone has an opinion. I use the 50 day exponential moving average as my primary indicator.
Good night and may April shower more gains in all our TSP accounts.
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