Ok, I like to take a peek in the past to see what each month might do for me before we even get started. First let me show you what I found and then I will talk a bit about it.
The first thing to note is that each year the payout on the G-fund, even though positive, gets smaller each year. Soon we will be needing a mattress to hide our money in because the G-fund will pay almost nothing. The F-fund except for 2008, showed to me that it is mostly negative. The C,S, and I for the most part are always positive in December and the average return is 2.33% or higher as an average. So if that trend continues, we should have a fairly good month ahead of us. Remember, this information is past information and doesn’t mean December 2013 will be good or bad. It’s just a look at what is the norm.
Starting next week you will see a new line in my index YTD, Monthly, and weekly returns that will show what my personal distribution is doing for me. Below are my results as of last week and it will look like this:
The S&P 500 is safe and is still structurally sound. My dark blue channel that I drew last week to give us a heads up for an early sign that things might be slowing, is still working. Only thing to keep in mind is our two warning levels and sell level. Sell level is deep at $1697 or 5.4% drop in price. Just ride and watch for now.
Last week I drew an ascending wedge and gave you my thoughts on that wedge. So if you need a refresher on that post, just scroll down the TSP blog and re-read part 2 of week 47. This past week the Small Cap broke out to the upside as should be the norm with this type of wedge. So now the Small Cap index is in agreement with the S&P 500 and should move higher from here. My target price here is around $1000 which is another 12%. Really? 12%? It is just a measured move and not the law. Either way, price should move up from here unless we get some negative news. For those that are out of the Small Cap index, could use this as another entry point.
Last week I also mentioned that the International index was in a symmetrical triangle and it was more concerning because this type of wedge could break either way. It has no consistencies on breakout direction. So after last weeks price movements, we have nothing. We are still waiting and watching to see if price will breakout to the upside. The positive here is that we are still making higher lows. We are currently still safe with all our warning levels and sell level. Wait and watch. If this does breakout to the upside next week, it will be another re-entry for those that are not invested here.
Above are bonds and I still see no reason to put my money into this index. The positive is that it has a nice base forming at $106.67 and as long as that holds, you could bottom fish here. Price is above the 50 day moving average also, but it is moving sideways. Meh! Why bother. If I feel that insecure in the stock market, I’ll put my money safely into the G-fund with no downside risk.
Conclusion: C fund is a hold and ride. S fund is breaking out and we hold and ride and enter if your out. The I fund we hold, ride, and watch because we are waiting for a break in either direction.
Hope all had a great Thanksgiving and happy a long weekend.
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