TSP Charts – Next week it’s gotta break one way or the other.

The S&P 500 daily chart above has done nothing the last two but churn sideways. We call this consolidation. This normally goes on for about three weeks on average and then prices resume the pattern they had in the past. This would mean that very soon prices should start to rise. Nothing in the stock market is guaranteed so we use averages to get ideas only. News like earnings, wars, and shooting down passenger planes can make things change quickly, so nothing in the stock market is a sure thing. What I expect though is that prices on the S&P 500 should start moving up soon.

Here is another problem that could make the S&P 500 fail. It’s that Small Cap. Prices here are not consolidating but selling off and selling off hard. Warning one was fired last week and Thursday warning 2 was fired. At the close Friday, warning 2 was cancelled. Using the daily chart, $1009 is the bailout point. Since we are closing in on the end of the month for July and the sell point for the monthly is $990, I will likely not make any moves here until August 1st. I am very concerned when you look at the lower highs and lower lows that the selling will continue.

I will be watching the Small Cap very closely next week.

The International still has 2 warnings firmly fired. Things are looking more grim by the day and I truly expect that a sell will happen here soon. The sell point is $66.61. Lower highs and lower lows continue and the news flow from overseas continues to be bad on top of bad. If things are going to turn around here, you would expect it to happen very closely to the green uptrend line. That would be the perfect entry point, so maybe we all should be watching for a sell and and entry at the same time here. That could also be said for the Small Cap above. Both of these charts resemble each other for the last 2 weeks.

Watching the I-fund closely also.

Bonds have no warnings. What is unusual though is that looking at the green uptrend line and the red short term down trend line, price is slow squeezing together to a decision point. As each week passes, price also keep trailing lower and lower ever so slowly. At this pace, I would expect by Friday or the week after, warnings should start to fire for selling. The only thing that I see stopping this is if prices on the Small Cap, International, and S&p 500 collapse. That could change everything.

Bonds are safe, but for how much longer.

Conclusion: Very unsteady markets right now and getting harder to stay in. Next week is either going to be a great buy opportunity or we are going to collapse and markets will crash. Decision points are approaching. Remember, this is all for the daily chart watchers looking for a heads up. Monthly? We still have 2 weeks and 9 trading days left before any decisions have to be made. Fingers crossed for an upside reversal next week.