The S&P 500 still churning along. It set a new record high Thursday and then did a small pullback on Friday. There are no warnings or issues to talk about with the S&P as of Friday.
The Small Cap looked to be poised to make a breakout last week when it marched all the back to the last pivot high. Friday proved it wrong and it was rejected at the same point. Warning 2 is back on. That horizontal green line I drew was the point I was going to make a post that it might be a signal to go all in because the last pivot high was broken and price appears to be firmly climbing. All rejected Friday. Now we have to talk about holding and reversing before the last pivot low of $1017 is taken out. It that is broken, we could be in trouble and price might just continue down. If that happens, I think the S&P 500 and International will follow suit. This is not a happy chart right now. I will be watching very closely next week.
Just like the Small Cap, the International also made it back up to the last pivot high and was rejected. The International still ended the week up, but that rejection Friday was disturbing to me. We are in a very tight range so the downward to break the last pivot low is tight. $67.32 is the last pivot low and current price is $67.95. Tight! I will be watching the International closely next week also.
Bonds broke out of the top of that down trend line but Thursday immediately rejected any further climb. This price action did create a high pivot high but just barely. I’m a little confused here so I opted to draw a new trend line that still down and will wait to see what bonds do. To me it looks like further sideways churn but if stocks collapse next week, I think a slow grind up will ensue. Nothing to do at the moment but watch.
It was a very strange week on the market. Look at the ending numbers chart and you will see almost nothing moved. Maybe the market is looking for spark or maybe it is just waiting for the news to settle. I think things have to break soon in one direction or the other but there is no way to guess which. Another good reason to watch to the monthly charts and stop worrying about all the noise. The month of July ends next Thursday and I see no new moves happening. So at the earliest, based on monthly charts, August will be the first time any moves will have to be made.
Churn, Churn, Churn.
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