I think I made the comment to a few out there that the end of the month was this past Friday. Someone pointed out my error and it is actually Tuesday next week. So monthly moves will be posted that night. We had a very bad week in the markets last week and the entire month of September has pretty much been down. What a difference from last year when September was our best month. You can look a yesterdays post and see September 2013 numbers and compare to now and it’s bad.
Monday at the close, the Small Cap fired a sell signal on the daily chart. Tuesday as price continued to sink, the sell signal was confirmed. The rest of the week, prices continued to sink. If you closely at the monthly level and look left, you will see that it happens to line up with the last major pivot low. If that point fails, the S-fund could be in serious trouble. The monthly level is also under pressure and it looks possible that we could get a sell signal come close Tuesday. The Circle that I drew in green on the chart is where price has to return in order for a re-entry on the S-fund.
On Monday the International Index also fired a sell signal. Tuesday it confirmed. If you look at the overall trend with the Red dashed line, we are in a downtrend now. What is also concerning here is that price is below the monthly level and unless we have strong markets Monday and & Tuesday, it’s going to be a monthly sell. This puts even more pressure on the market indexes.
Bonds have been on the sell list, daily chart, since September 10th. Prices do appear to have bottomed out and are starting to creep back up. I would still stay away from bonds until the $109.25 level mark by a green horizontal line. Wednesday price did recapture that monthly level and it is possible bonds will still be a buy/hold come the close Tuesday.
So based on the daily charts, the C-fund is the only index we should be in. The S,I, and F are all currently a sell based on the daily charts. I’m still 100% S and taking a beating. I’m still up for the year but not by much. Another bad week like last week and I will be in the hole for the year. I will make adjustments after the close Tuesday based on monthly prices. The daily moves are getting harder and harder to make money.
I see a few scenario’s playing out by Tuesday close. One will be C and F buy/hold, or C, S, and F buy/hold. With the S&P500 being safe by a long shot and the S barely, I see all L-funds will also be a buy/hold.
Hoping for a good week next week. :)
I decided I wanted to add a little more to this post. If the stock market is about to get pounded, more so than what’s been happening in September, where is the money going for safety? Gold, Silver, Utilities, Consumer Staples, discretionaries, where?
Not Gold, it is approaching all time lows.
Silver? Nope just broke down this week to all time lows.
Utilities? Nope, they are going down also.
Consumer Staples? eh, not really. They are floating down also.
Discretionary? Nope, also going down.
So where is the money going or are all the big institutions and fund mangers just taking profits and trying to force prices down so they can buy at lower prices. Remember, a mutual fund manage can’t sell and entire position in one day because they are to large. It sometimes takes weeks to close a position for the big institutions, so maybe this is really where we are. Profit taking. Don’t believe me? What would you do if you held certain stocks this long without any profit taking? Look at the S&P500 below.
So could it be profit taking? The things we ponder.
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