TSP closing numbers as of 12/5/14

The first week of trading for December was almost a non-event but we do have some interesting things to look at on the daily charts. Even though I now refuse to make moves based on dailies, it is fun to look at the minor moves to give us a little insight at what might be coming our way. This week bonds were the big losers at almost 1%, but does it really matter? We will see. The International was down a little bit, but more important, was the I-fund ever a buy on the daily chart? Is the Small Cap finally leading or are we still concerned? Let’s look at the S&P 500 first.

I got nothing on the S&P 500. It keeps creeping uphill and keeps making all time highs. Do we bailout of the C-fund just because it is at all time highs? Nope. You should never do that because who’s to say it doesn’t continue climb uphill another 10, 20, or 30%. If that happens, you would be sitting on the outside all pissed off you missed it. A better method would be to wait until the monthly chart gave you a reason to bailout.

Two weeks ago we approached the $1064 level, bounced around for 3 days and then got rejected. I was not happy. The fight at this level dates back to July 1st. We came back down and tested the red CBL level at $1032. Since last Monday, we started once again to climb the wall of worry back toward the $1064 level and it looks like we will once again test it next week.

Like I predicted about a month ago, the I-fund got a buy signal by just grinding sideways. I’m not a fan of that and will not invest here until the monthly level of $65 falls. I still think it is best to wait until then.

Ok, so Bonds were down almost 1% this week but does that really matter? Not yet it doesn’t because we have been basically grinding sideways since October 7th. We are below the 50 day moving average and the CBL, so warning 1 and 2 are in effect. We are still above the monthly, so those that are invested in Bonds need not worry yet, but it’s close to those levels. I will say this. It will be interesting to see where bonds will be December 31st. Personally, I’m not invested in Bonds, so I will be just watching.

So there you have it. It still believe if Small Caps can get moving through $1064, we should be set to run. But we all know in the stock market, there are no guarantees.

My PIP as of November 30, 2014 :

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 11/30/2014 is 7.16%.

One more little note. Once again, those who follow me closely and use monthly moves in their TSP are going to beat me on YTD gains for 2014. I think that is awesome. Next year I’m making all moves based on the monthly moves.