So is 2015 going to be a repeat of 2014? You have to think it is if you just look at the charts above. Last year Bonds led the way and so far in 2015, Bonds are leading the way. The only thing that I see different right is that the International is not as bad off as it was last year. This week, the International kicked ass but still a lot of work to go before it could be a buy. Even on the daily chart it still looks ugly. Brightside is maybe the International is getting ready to make turn to the upside. It has been a loser since September 30th when it fired a monthly sell signal.
So let’s take a look at the four charts for each index and see where we finished this week.
A week full of drama ! Did you like seeing all the negative post this week? If your a monthly decision maker it should have been making you feel on edge. This is why I say listening to the news will drive you nuts. On the chart above there are numbers, so let’s start at 1. A2 point 1 the CBL signal fired giving off warning one that price may be reversing into a downtrend. At point 2, price fell below the 50 day moving average firing warning 2. At point 3, a sell signal was fired and if you followed that, then you had to bail out today by 11:30 unless got back above $2016 by that level. That didn’t happen, so you would have to say the sell signal was executed and we will build from there. So now the red CBL has to be deleted and a green CBL for re-entry has to be built. So let’s look at the new daily chart for next week.
So the first thing that is important for next week is that we really need to hold above those last two pivot lows. Get below those, and we could see a stronger pull back. That lowest pivot low is $1972. In order for the S&P 500 daily to reverse my sell signal it will have to get above the 50 day moving average, point 1 and back above the green CBL, point 2. So as it stands today, the S&P 500 is a sell on the daily chart.
Small Cap had the same drama as the S&P 500 this week. Point 1 fired a CBL warning. Point 2 fell below the 50 day moving average. There was a brief period that it looked like the Small Cap might reverse, but that did happen. Point 3 fired a sell. So today, the Small Cap had to get back above $1035 by 11:30am and it didn’t make it. Close at $1030, but it didn’t make it. So we have to treat the Small Cap the same as the S&P 500 and that makes it a daily sell. So let’s look at next week chart.
WE have the last two pivots that must be held and the bottom level is $1005. We are right at point 1 which is the 50 day moving average and we have to take out the green CBL. Funny thing is the Green CBL is at that all important level of $1064 or just slightly above it. This should be an interesting battle.
The International Daily index over the last 9 days is finally showing a little life. It was the largest gainer this week also at 1.93%. But in order to reverse the downtrend and make this daily chart a buy, we will have to see some things happen. Point 1, the green CBL will have to be taken out. Point 2, the 50 day moving average will have to be taken out. Point 3, the downtrend line will have to be taken out. So there is still a lot of work that has to done before I would be willing to throw money at this index.
This is currently the only index we have with no drama. Bonds just keep march up and making money. Nothing here not to like.
So not a very good start to 2015 but if January holds up and is a loss, maybe February will do the same and we will get a nice rip to the upside.
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