TSP Daily Charts as of 3/28/15

The past week in the stock market was very disappointing. We basically gave everything back that we earned the week prior. Where I was ahead of March 2014, now I’m a little behind March 2014. As far as YTD goes, I’m still ahead by .6% or so. We still have 2 more trading days in March so let’s hope they are good ones. So let’s look at the damage that the daily charts took this week.

Of the 4 TSP funds, C,S, I, and F that we track here, the C-fund had the most damage done in one week. The C-fund was down 2.20% in one week. Point 1, the blue line that I drew along time ago to show support and resistance was broken to the downside. That was disappointing and I was hoping that $2090 level would hold. Point 2, the Red CBL that I haven’t moved in quite awhile was broken again to the downside. Warning 1 fired. Point 3, price fell below the 50 day ma. Warning 2 fired. Point 4, that short term uptrend was broken. This did not create a sell signal because the primary uptrend line below has not broken yet. I will put a daily hold on the C-fund. Weekly and Monthly are still a buy.

The S-fund was down 1.93% this week but no major damage was done. Looking at point 1, the CBL was broken only temporarily and then Friday prices rose high enough to create a higher pivot low. So this is actually a truly healthy pull back here and should indicate higher prices next week. No warnings here.

  The I-fund was down .69% this week but it was a healthy pull back. Nothing wrong with a pullback that stays in trend. Another bonus here is that a higher pivot low was also created here. That should mean higher prices next week. No warnings here.

Bonds or the F-fund was actually up this week but just barely at .02%. No warnings and no damage done here.

So in conclusion, all we did here is give back all we gained the week before. Depending on your setup in the TSP you didn’t give it all back, because I’m actually still better off than I was two weeks ago. The Small Cap and the International before had higher pivot lows created Friday, so they should lead us higher. The S&P 500 was a little concerning because it almost looks like it is about to go into grind mode or sideways churn. So next week, we sit back and watch. At the close Tuesday, it will be monthly move time again if any move is required at all. The only index that looks to me like it might make a move, is the I-fund. Price close enough to the monthly level that if we have two bad days, Monday and Tuesday, it could end up a sell.

This is the end of the TSP blog post. The below bit is for those that are interested in the oil trade.

Oh how close we were last week to are first official buy signal in Oil. Point 1, price broke out of the short term down trend line. Point 2, price close above the green CBL buy line. All that was left to do was to get a close above the 50 day moving average. Point 3, price fell back below both the down trend line and the CBL. On top of that, price created another lower pivot high that was lower than point 4, which was lower than point 5. This would indicate that lower prices are ahead next week and the buy process will have to start all over. This is why I set these things up like this so I get fewer false buy signals. Just remember, this is just reading the data that is available to me at this moment in time. Come Monday morning, prices could do just the opposite and start zooming higher. It’s ok, if they do, then a buy signal will be fired and an entry will be made by me.