Closing numbers for the week, charts, & comments. 5/1/15

What an ugly week in the markets this week. A lot of damage was done on two of our indexes and one even has me saying damn! Now what? I added a new little chart above that shows my monthly earnings for one 12 month cycle. Neat to see and I built it so I could anticipate my PIP. Looking at my Apr-15 number of .93 and knowing that it replaced a negative 2.45, my PIP next week should go up. I can also see that I need to keep May and June this year positive because last year I had a gain in each month. Ok, let’s get to those charts.

You can see by the 5 day chart above the S-fund took a beating. All the other indexes did also, but nowhere near as bad as the Small Cap.

The International index is still a picture perfect chart at this moment in time. Since January 3rd, it is making higher highs and higher lows. Based on this information and the chart above, I expect next week that the International continues higher.

  I really thought that the S&P 500 was going to do a breakout march to the high side this week, but it failed. Still not a disaster because structure is still intact. Thursday we did fire a warning when price closed below the 50 day moving average, but come Friday that was cancelled. I have no clue which way this index is going to move next week but it is going to break soon in one direction or the other. Price continues to coil and it’s getting tighter and tighter from high to low, so a break is soon to come.

This is where the charts get ugly. The Small Cap was leading us up in 2015 and got the ball rolling. It appears now that the reverse is happening in the Small Cap. From the get go Monday morning the selling started in the Small Cap. It continued all week except for Friday. Problem is by Friday, the damage had been done. A 2.21% belly flop that could have been a lot worse if not for the 3/4% gain on Friday. So what was the damage. Structure has been compromised in that the last pivot low was taken out and taken out hard. Now add the fact that Thursday warning 1 & 2 fired simultaneously and confirmed Friday. One more last little piece of damage. The really short uptrend line was destroyed. I wasn’t using it as my sell line, but I hate to see those fail because it normally means a trend is changing. So is it all bad? Well no, not yet. Well still have a short term trend, intermediate, and long term trend intact. But, if that first short term line fails, it will fire my sell signal on the daily chart. The monthly line is still below that short term trend, so you can see that we have been running uphill for a long time. It will be bad if next week we continue to fall. With 2 warnings on the daily chart, I have to put a hold in this chart.

Wow, what a bad week for Bonds. Does this mean in real terms that interest rates are getting ready to go up? Not sure, but someone big was selling bonds this week. Monday prices were up. Tuesday the first real sell off hit and it fired warning 1 & 2 simultaneously. Wednesday another big drop in prices. Thursday we had a big sell off, but recovered by the end of the day. This also saved a sell signal on the monthly chart going into May. But what happened Friday even confuses me. We fired a sell signal on the daily chart and if you look at that purple horizontal line, we fired a sell on the monthly 1 day after the end of April. So should we show it as a sell for the month after the call has already been made. We are talking a 24 hour difference. What I can see is that things here look ugly and we need a reversal next week in order for me to feel comfortable with that monthly call. For now, I’m showing it is sell daily and a hold monthly. So as you can see by the buttons below, this is a now a mess. No new money should be sent here for the time being. Better defined, if you have no money in Bonds as of May 1st, don’t put any money here at all. Wait for at least a week.

So you can see we have the International just cruising along. Who saw that coming? Well the charts did and we called it here the end of February. We also called it here, February 4th. The S&P 500 is holding it’s own but not making any current progress. The S and F are in trouble and need to recover next week.

I hope all of you ended the month of April with a gain and everyone’s PIP will be above 7% come next Tuesday at the latest. Hopefully May will good to us as it was last year. That’s all I’ve got for the week, so have a great weekend.