Not a lot to say other than July was hard to watch and two of the indexes, Small Cap and International were bouncing around buy and sells all month. So lets dive into closing charts as of 7/31/2015.
The S&P 500 is safe and a buy. Not even close all month.
Look at the entire July monthly line. It marks the open to the left of the vertical mark, the high, the low, and the close to right of the vertical mark. As a matter of fact, the Buy arrow is pointing at the close for the month. But why it was so close to a sell at points during the month is look at the white vertical line and compare it the horizontal purple line. There were times during the month of July, the small cap was a sell. That was then, and this is now. The Small Cap is a buy.
Bonds are still a sell for the 3rd month but price did close at the high for the month. Things could be starting to move here.
What a month for the International index. Price spent most of the entire month as a sell monthly and then started to recover. By almost the slimmest of margins, 7 cents, the International is a buy. This is a very hard call for me, but by the letter of the law, a buy is a buy. Is there anything else that might give us a clue on this buy signal. Let’s look at the weekly and the daily to see if they are buys or close. But remember, the weekly chart has still yet to fire a sell this year, but it is very very very close.
How close is this buy or sell signal on the weekly chart? The moving average is exactly the same between the 10 and 30. All last week, until the close Friday, it was a sell. But price ended Friday up and up just enough to hold off the official sell signal. So this is not looking that great here.
The International daily has crossed above the green CBL buy line. But, price is still below the 50 day moving average which would trigger the buy. We do finally have a higher pivot low which could be a early signal that trend is reversing. So there is a little light at the end of the tunnel to support the 7 cents buy signal on the monthly chart.
So is it a buy, sell, or hold monthly? Like I said above, by the letter of the law of the monthly chart it is a buy. Weekly doesn’t support it and the daily says it’s still to early. So use your own judgment here. I will not fault you for going in and I will not fault you for staying out. But if the monthly is right, it is going to be a great early call.
Conclusion: C, S, and I are buys and the F is still a sell. Since all the L-funds only have 5 to 6% invested in the F, and the rest in the C,S,I, and G, All the L-funds are a buy. Just pick one. It is silly to buy a little of each. Example: 50% L-income and 50% L-2050. All your do is mixing the the same funds and you would have to do math to figure out your spread between funds. So just pick one if you go with the L-finds. L-income least risky and the L-2050 is the most risky.
Make your adjustment now or no later than Monday 11:59am and then turn off the news about the markets until August 31st. Don’t listen to chatter by all those that no everything. Believe me, if they knew everything their last name would be Google. We make decision here based on non-emotional mechanical charts.
No comments:
Post a Comment