TSP closing numbers 8/7/15 – Ugh again.

 

 

Let me start off by showing last months PIP:

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 07/31/2015 is 7.78%.

Another very Red week this week and another week where no progress on breaking out of this range was done on any index. Trying to find the bright spots in this current market and it’s hard to find. Even fuel prices on the stock market are taking a hammer and they are not passing onto us the customer. We touched a $1.99 around here back in January or February and we are still above $2.40 a gallon as an average around here. Prices on the stock market and now below the January and February lows. Hmm, who’s keeping the profit?

So if Stocks are getting hammered, where is the safe haven? Gold? Nope, it’s getting the hammer. Silver? Nope, it’s getting the hammer. Energy? nope, still getting the hammer. The only thing I see moving at all on the stock market in the up direction is Financials and Healthcare stocks. Everything else is going sideways or down.

I do think it’s going to break that cycle soon, but the direction is unknown to me. If I owned a crystal ball, I would tell you all the answer. But, we are just going to have to sit and wait. Last months charts said stay in the C, S, and I and I’m in. If at the end of August they indicate something else, I will adjust. Now to the charts.

The S&P 500 daily above is just not moving in either direction. It does appear that prices are starting to squeeze together for an imminent breakout in one direction or the other. No clue to the direction. Look at the 50 day moving average. Tracking sideways since  June 2, 2015. So where this leaves us today is nowhere new. We are just watching and waiting for something to happen. Both sell warnings are still in effect here as last reported July 24th.

    The Small Cap is really really starting to look bad on the daily chart. This week we created another lower pivot high to help confirm that new short term down trend. That gray area I drew above I believe is key because falling into that area or below will really put pressure on selling. Meaning that prices will go much lower. This is not a scare tactic but just a chart observation. That gray area is where the last pivot low was created and bounce up off of it would be a major confirmation of support. We need support. The other unfortunate thing that happened Thursday and Friday is that Thursday fired a daily sell and Friday confirmed it. Yuk!! Weekly and Monthly we are ok but the Monthly looks to be in trouble once again this month.

  The International has been close a few times to a buy signal but fails each time. We are grinding sideways. It also appears that as more time goes by, that we are building a nice little bull flag. This normally breaks out to the high side. Right now, nothing has changed. One last little note, the weekly is still so close to a sell that it’s hard to call it a buy.

Ok, something I forgot to report Friday a week ago is that bonds fired a buy signal on the daily chart. Monday it confirmed it. The rest of the week it just laid there and did nothing, so if you’re looking for an early entry, here it is. It also appears that prices are firming up and might have found a bottom. Things here on Bonds could change fast to the buy side but I really do not expect much in the way of percentage up. But, it’s much better than the downside we have seen in stocks lately.

   Conclusion: If you’re doing something other than monthly moves and it’s working, keep doing it until it fails. Right now I think we are just in the Summer time grind mode and there are small signs that it could end within weeks. The small problem we all have is knowing exactly which way it is going to break. Times like this, I still like to turn the news off and stop listening to everything. I just want to see my charts.