TSP weekly numbers 4/13/12

In a word, Nasty !

The S&P 500 closed right on top the 50 day moving average and right on what I consider a major support at $1370. I really thought after Alcoa made better than expected earnings Tuesday and then Google beat on Thursday, that Friday would be a plus day. Apparently there was something about Google doing a 2 for 1 split in order to keep control of the company and then there was Europe. The later should not be shocking. But looking at our chart, all indications at this point if $1370 doesn’t hold next week, we are heading lower. No I do not know how low, just lower. I can show you on charts how we are oversold and that should help support the $1370 line, but the market really doesn’t care about our support points. The market is going to go were the buyers and sellers take it.

The Small Cap to me looks to be in serious trouble here. The 50 day moving average was lost again Friday and appears to the battle ground. There are to distinct low point on this chart that I didn’t mark but they are easy to see. If we lose $684, I fear that the Small Caps will be in big trouble. I may be bailing out of the Small Cap very soon.

 

The International Fund still looks bad and I would not be invested here at all. The C and the S are looking more and more likely ready to rollover and or go sideways. I think we will have to see some very good earning reports in the next few days in order to reverse this path. We could also use a little good news from Europe, but do not count on that. If the C, S, and I are going to rollover, you can bet the F-fund and G-fund is likely where all monies are going to flow for safety. Below you will see a chart for the F-fund, Bonds and you can see it appears to be recovering once again.

Conclusion: Looking at the Weekly charts for the C,S, I, Dow30, and Nasdaq, they all created a pivot high which normally means that we are going to be going down for the near future. Pulling out here is not un-called for and as for that matter, would likely be the smart move. I will not be giving the markets much room this week. If I feel critical points have been broken and we being to turn up soon, I ‘m out. Stay tuned Monday and Tuesday to what happens.

TSP Distribution: C-fund 50%, G-fund 25%, S-fund 25%