Have a reason at least.

I have been doing my best to learn the in’s and out’s of the stock market now going on 2 plus years and I still struggle to keep my head above water. I have gotten a lot better at reading the S&P 500, Small Cap, and the International Index, but I still struggle with individual stocks. I’m not alone. I follow several professional traders and they to have bad days and good days. Sometimes their bad days run for days and days.  These guy’s do it for a living, unlike myself where it is my play money and retirement monies. But what separates these guys from myself is discipline. No matter how hard I try, I sometimes trap myself in stupidity.  So this leads me to the real reason for today’s post. In the last few days, I have had 3 people come up to me to say that I’m all in or going at least half in.  I then ask based on what? Look, I’m going to show you a close up of the last 3 weeks or 15 days in the S&P 500 below and you tell me or show me why I should go long or put my money in the stock market.

So in the last 15 days, specially the last 10, what if anything do you see that might make you think that it is a good time to get back into the market? Support has been broken, twice. Price is below the 50 day moving average. A distinct downtrend has developed. I just do not get it. So maybe a bigger chart or long range chart may show us something. So let’s scan back 1 year and see if there is something.

So what do you see above that would make you want to go all in? Support was broken at $1370 and $1357. Then today support was broken at $1336. Never did price slow it’s fall in the last 10 days of trading or 2 weeks. The next support level is $1292, so logically you would have to say, here it comes.

So my point, have a plan or reason, not just a pot luck throw your hard earn money at the market. See a reversal of some kind, either off support or two pivot lows, one higher than the last. But at least have something you can point at as a reason. Do not blame the markets when it is screaming for you to get out of the way.

It is my belief based on all that I have seen that we are going lower. I’m not calling $1292, I’m just saying based on what I see as of today, we are going lower. Nothing on this chart or any other chart as of today has shown me anything not to believe this.