This week we end up on all indexes except bonds which were down just a little bit. It also ended the 2 week run of lower prices. I put some notes on the S&P 500 chart above but I can tell you there is nothing not to like about this chart at this point in time. I’m starting to hear rumblings that we really need a major pullback but that is just talk. We watch price movement and not news or chatter.
The Small Cap above also had a very nice move back up this week and that helps because there was a bit more damage here than that of the S&P. If you did pull out of the S or are waiting to get in, I would have to wait until it cleared $739 before I jumped back in. You just want to make sure that this move is real and not just a head fake. Everything else on the chart is good to go, so I will continue to ride the wave.
The International Index had the best move this week with a 2.15% up move. Thursday it broke out of a Bull Flag and then Friday it confirmed it. So if you’re a gambler, Monday you go all in here, but if you want more of a signal you will wait till price clears $54.90 to $55. Everything else on the chart looks good.
I will be the first to admit that I have a hard time figuring out the Bond market. One minute it looks like it is ready to takeoff and then the next it is reversing. As of the close Friday, it looks like it is beginning to tank again. I would not invest here at all and if I were in the L-funds, I would take my monies out and try to replicate the my current L position less the bonds. If anyone needs me to explain that, email me or come find me and I will explain it to you. I have no money in bonds and I will stay out.
Conclusion: The C, S, and I funds all look good as of this Friday close. I do not predict the future but I do read charts and the charts on these 3 indexes say to stay in. I looked up what the S&P has done the 10 years and 7 out the last 10 it was up. So I will have to ride all these indexes. I will say there are a few pages that I read that believe we really need a major pullback but I say based on what? Either way, I will make my decisions on price not news or gut and see if I can have and as good a 12 month run in the TSP as was just report to me today when I logged into my account. Below is a cut and paste directly from my TSP and even though it is not as good as could be, I’ll take it.
Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 09/30/2012 is 17.96%.
That’s going to be a hard number to match. Most big Mutual Fund Mangers target a 7% gain a year, so making almost 18% again is going to tough.
TSP Distribution: C-fund 50%, S-fund 40%, I-fund 10%
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