TSP Distribution: C-fund 50%, S-fund 40%, I-fund 10%
Ok, I put the warning out last Wednesday. Thursday we got a little reprieve in the morning hours but we gave it all up by the close of the day. Then come Friday, we gave up more and put every indicator under stress. My first warning system the CBL fell Wednesday and it has not recovered. Now the more important uptrend is now starting to fall. Lastly the 50 day moving average is slowing starting to nose over. I run two 50’s, simple and exponential. Price closed right on top the simple and just above the Exponential. Everything here is screaming Red Alert, so come Monday if price is below both 50’s between 11:30-12noon, I might considering bailing.
The last 6 days have all fade lower even though a couple in there started out looking like we would have gain for the day. This trend needs to reverse now. There are 2 really good reasons. The next major support dates back the April 2, 2012 when the high of $1422 was hit and here we flirting with the number again today. next is the Fibonacci Retracements is calling the 23.6% level as $1425. These levels line up pretty close with the 50 day moving averages and the current uptrend line, so you know everyone is watching them if I see them. So, $1425 to $1422 has to hold or I’m out.
Price has closed below both the 50 day moving averages here and everything inside of me is saying bailout. The only thing that gives me hope is the green uptrend line is still intact. I might give this index another day, but if it is getting tore Monday, I might just close out here.
Normally when our markets get down, the International index is already being torn apart by the seams. Even though it did have a down week, it held well with all the indicators. Yes they are close to failing, but currently they are intact. We are definitely on watch here and if I pull from the C and S on Monday or Tuesday, I will likely just jump 100% G or F.
It would not surprise me Monday to see things total reverse an start climbing because my indicators are also telling me that we are slightly overbought on all three indexes. I also know that normally October are up months but I have also seen some Octobers that have been absolutely devastating. The term Black Monday came from October 19th, 1987 when the S&P lost 508 points in one day. Some of the stock traders that I follow our chattering about in terms of another 10 – 15 days of pullback before the bargain shoppers start buying. We also have the Fed playing with the markets trying to prop it up. So many factors and so much noise that it can drive you nuts. So once again, I’m going to have to just let price control my decisions and this Monday and Tuesday, I could be running to safety.
15% gain for the year still looks good to me, some I’m willing to bail here.
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