Tuesday, April 16, 2013

TSP critical update, S-fund is in trouble.

I’m going to make this short and sweet because it is already mid-night. I just didn’t have time after the close to look at or post anything until after I got home. Today there was much damage done to the markets. 3.5% to 2.3% pullbacks almost on all indexes. It all started with Gold, Silver, and oil selling off, among with other commodities. Then the news of the Boston bombing just added more fuel. So where are we.

$dwcpf

Here is where the majority of the damage was done, Small Cap. It fired a failure of the CBL, the uptrend line, and the 50 day moving average in just one daily move. This is a hard pill to swallow, but looking at the big picture, you should still be in the money. Now tomorrow, if we do not recapture the $801 level, which is the 50 day moving average, I see no alternative but to withdraw from the S-fund. I will likely go bonds if this happens.

sp-daily

Lot’s of damage done here, but no warnings were fired. I will just watch tomorrow with my C-fund.

efa

Lot’s of damage was done here also, but no warnings were fired. I-fund is safe today, watch tomorrow.

agg

Bonds look safe and will likely be the best place to rest if the downtrend continues.

Conclusion: Everything is safe and no move is required tomorrow with the exception of the Small Cap. The index needs to recapture $801 tomorrow or I will likely bail. I guess if we are just pennies below and the breadth of the market is up, I might stay in, but it is going to have to convince me. I’m betting on a bounce tomorrow in stocks in my personal stock trading, but that is another thing all together.

Tomorrow will be telling.

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