TSP Charts for the week ending, 4/25/2014…Structure!

I’m sure a lot of you felt after Friday that it doesn’t look very good for the markets but I’m here to tell you, it’s all about structure. Yes if things do not work out like the books says or how past structure has taught us, we could be in trouble. Think of a staircase. If you have proper higher pivot highs and higher pivot lows, we have a staircase. This week we got higher pivot highs, even though very slight, we got them. Now we need price to pullback and create a high pivot low which shows a proper staircase. We cannot go down much here or we are in trouble, so below let’s look at those levels and charts.

Warnings, yes we have one index with warnings.

  The Small Cap above is our index under that is under the most stress and structure is getting sloppy. Once again the main uptrend line has been broken but at a higher level, which is partially good. The past CBL that is not shown has been broken for awhile. The pivot high that was created this week was just $2 above the last pivot high, but still higher than the last. I was not impressed. The last pivot low was $963 and we need price next week to bounce back upwards prior to getting to the level. So remember, 963 is key. A close below that level could be devastating. See the red PL on the chart above. If price reverses prior to 963 and then climbs above 1014, we are on and that would be a great entry.

The S&P 500 above is ok. We got our higher pivot high this week and it is time to test the higher pivot low. What is that level? $1814, we need that to hold and price to reverse. If that happens, we need price to climb back above $1884 and that would be another good entry. No warnings on the S&P 500 yet but it is close.

The International barely, I mean barely made a higher pivot high. It was so close that the short term downtrend is still intact. The key here is the same as the other indexes, that last higher pivot low must hold. That level is $65.68. No warnings are current on the International index.

Bonds continue to climb ever so slowly, but climbing it is. If these prices hold through Wednesday, the monthly will be saying once again to buy once again.

Conclusion: Small Caps seem to be  the leading indexes. When it gets hammered, the S&P and International also pull back. Watch the Pivot lows this week and hope they hold. The month ends on Wednesday and I will make a post that night. For now, hold and watch if you in and if your out, watch and wait for an entry.