TSP report week ending 5/9/2014 – Still floating down

 

So far this year has been a very depressing year compared to last but I still have to remember my goals. No double digit losses in any 12 month period and attempt to make 7% every 12 month period. My last 12 months earnings 15.9% but after the last 4 months is going to come down this time next year. But still should be no double digit losses. Right now I feel like I’m just treading water waiting for the next big move in one direction or the other.

A side note for all the TSP’ers here. You must change your password the next time to log onto the TSP.gov website to make it stronger.

I’m going to focus on the ugly and then end with the indexes that are just treading water. The Small Cap Daily above is the battle ground. After the high was hit March 7th, we had had 4 consecutive lower pivot highs. The Short term down trend has accelerated to the downside. It has also broken through the primary uptrend. The only thing keeping my invested even in a small way is the monthly chart. Even the very short term uptrend line I drew last  week is now on the verge of failing. There is a bright spot but it needs to hold. The last pivot low shown with the green arrow has to hold. The point is $973. I believe if that fails, the monthly will fail and we could tumble. I will be watching $973 to $968 closely next week and beyond. I think that is going to the breaking point or reversal point. Just to clear, that is not a prediction, but more a point that a decision has to be made to stay in or get out.

In contrast to the Small Cap is the S&P 500. No warnings and it appears to be treading water waiting for the next big move. Which way will it break is the question. I believe the key might be the Small Cap. If the Small Cap rolls over, I think the S&P 500 will follow. If the Small Cap starts to reverse and climb, the S&P 500 will follow.

The International Is all safe and no warnings. Still treading water and coiling for a move. Which way?

Bonds still climbing bit by bit and is still the big winner for 2014. Up 3.31% for the year. I will stay partially invested here until the Stock indexes start to move.

Conclusion is simple this week, watch the Small Cap. It seems to me to be the drag on the market at this point in the market.