Let me just get to it.
Does it feel like it? Does it? We closed Friday at an all time closing high. It is hard for me to believe that when I Look at my year to date gains and only see a 1.90% gain. Looking at the chart above it is pretty easy to see we are safe at the moment. I’m looking for the S&P 500 to start making regular new high’s next week unless the Small Cap falls apart.
The Small Cap made another move this week but after watching 6 moves like this fail since March 7th, I have no faith yet. I will need proof by watching price taking out a pivot high or two. See those red arrows? Those pivots need to be taken out. If the two closet pivots to the current date can be taken out, then I will believe we have reversed and are ready to run. The run we had last week was nice, but it was just a drop in the bucket to repair damage. It will be a very interesting week to watch since the S&P is making high’s and the International is close to YTD high’s, what this Small Cap index will do.
Currently we are safe and watching closely here.
The International is safe and sitting at YTD highs. Price is above the 50 day moving average and the 50 day is rising. Everything here looks good and we will just watch.
With all stocks indexes up this week, it is not a surprise that Bonds trailed off a bit. Looking at the daily chart though, we are safe and still grinding high ever so slowly. I will remain in here until I’m given a reason to get out.
Conclusion: Very simple week again to sit here and look at charts that are barely moving. It’s like watching a slug race across a dry sidewalk. I still believe everything is going to hinge on the Small Caps. When they break in either direction the market is going to break with it I’m not calling either direction, but since we have been floating down since March, my mind says we are more likely to go up. Proof technically on the chart is taking out those lower pivot high’s one at a time.
Watch the Small Caps and next Friday is the end of May. Yep, almost half the year gone already. Monthly moves will have to be looked at next weekend.
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