TSP charts closing July 3rd – Bonds could be in trouble again.

What’s not to like with the S&P 500? Price structure is about as perfect as a long term investor would want. Higher highs and higher lows are text book. There is nothing not to like here.

Three weeks ago I made the comment that I should go all S-fund with my TSP account but ended up chickening out because of the risk. Wow that would have been a great move, but financially silly. I have to keep in mind that I’m not investing in individual stocks here, this is my retirement account.  The Small Cap is back and structure once again looks good. You have to think, since the March pullback, that we should be good to roll for a few more weeks until the next consolidation of prices. No warnings here, just watch and wait.

I’m guilty of a little bit of snooping because I wanted to see why the International Index had that sizable drop, so I did a little news research, but found nothing in my search. I thought maybe it was a big dividend payout, but I do not think so. Since that drop, the International has done a nice job marching back. One of the 2 warnings has been dropped as of last Wednesday. The long term uptrend is still good and I would stay invested here. I am 25% invested in the I-fund.

As of Wednesday, Bonds fired warning 1 and warning 2. We have been here before recently as of two weeks ago. What makes it a little different this time is that I can draw a support line based on past price and you can see above that as of Thursdays close, it was broken. The final closing price for the day recovered to the support point, so watching price action Monday will be important here. The Green uptrend is also going to be important to watch. If that breaks, support breaks, and technically the monthly support level is also broken, the sell is on. Technically monthly movers are not suppose to be watching this until July 31st, but it is something to note. It is very possible to get a sell signal and confirmation early next week.

Conclusion: Ride the C, S, and I-funds but the F-fund looks dangerous at the moment.