So who was out of the C,S, and I and got in on Thursday February 11 by 12:00 noon? You someone is going to claim they did. If you hear anyone make that claim, make them show you the move in their TSP. What a perfect move that would have been. That is a 5% run uphill out of the blue. Now you have to ask yourself. Did they get out last Friday 19th also? If not, why not? It was a really nice rip last week but where are we now? Let’s look at the charts.
Prices on the S&P 500 came ripping off of that support level $1814 and froze right at the green CBL buy level of $1926. Not only was a pause at my buy level, but it also paused below the last pivot high and is ar risk now of creating a lower pivot high. What does a lower pivot high mean? It normally means prices are heading lower still. The brightside is the fact that it is not formed yet but is very close. A close below $1898.80 would create a lower pivot high and the current closing price is $1917.78. It is very possible next week, the current rise in prices countinue after a breif pause and everything said previous is no longer valid. We can’t predict the future, so we watch to see what happens. On the flip side, if prices rise above the green CBL buy level of $1926 and above the 50 day ma of $1940, we could have a new daily buy on our hands. We are at levels that need resolution.
The Small Cap is an exact duplicate of the S&P 500, so if you read what I said above, you have the same picture. The only different is the numbers on the levels. We are looking to buy at of above $932. We have a lower pivot high possible in formation. A close below $896.21 would confirm a lower pivot high.
The International also had a nice rip to upside but ended with some bad news. The International did form a lower pivot high and this is a strong indication that prices are once again heading lower. There is still just nothing to like here. Looking at the longer term charts, weekly & and monthly, they just look scary. The next level of support that I see is around $46.36. That’s 14% below current price levels. I see nothing here.
Bonds are not fast moving and if you are looking to recover a lot of losses quickly, it’s not going to happen here. With that said, Bonds had some significant things to note this week. Because of a higher pivot high that formed this week, we have a new short term uptrend line. It’s a sharp angle will likely fail, but it is used to give us an indication of trend changes coming. The 50 day ma crossed over the 125 ma and is an indication that this current uptrend is long term and strong. The last thing that happened this week is that the Weekly chart fired a buy signal. The chart below shows the cross over buy signal.
So Bonds have now confirmed a buy of all 3 charts and is really the only index we have that is working.
Conclusion: I would like to see a test of the last lows on the C and S funds and if that holds, I would be willing to make another bet with rules to bail if that happens. Will be very curious what the markets have in store for us next week. I have no clue as to direction other than what my charts indicated as of the close Friday. Based on that information, the C, S, and I are heading lower and the F is heading higher.
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