TSP numbers & charts as of 4/17/16–We had a small breakout.

 

Last week we spoke about bull flags on all charts except the International index and what normally happens in 7 to 21 trading days. This week the S&P 500 broke out of the bull flag to the upside as expected and the march uphill continued. It wasn’t a bold breakout, but a breakout to the upside it was. The long term down trend is pretty much done also. We now have several cases of higher pivot highs and higher pivot lows, so one can only assume this slow grind higher is going to continue for the time being. The volatility is down and lean toward all time lows, so this also bodes well for prices to keep climbing.

 

The Small Cap also broke out to the upside out of it’s bull flag. Two other things are happening that have to be mentioned. That long term down trend line is finally under attack and appears to be broken. That is a nemesis that has been dogging this market since September of 2015. Can you see that purple horizontal line? Price just peeked above the monthly moving average which mean it is possiblel in 2 weeks to have a long term buy here. Unlike the S&P 500, the entry here could be a very nice call because it will be an early call. Look at this long range weekly chart and you will see this is an early call and the upside potential here is good. It to early to jump on this call, but it does look promising.

 

The International index is making good progress. You can begin to see upside structure just looking at that PH (pivot highs) and PL (pivot lows). You need them to continue higher and not go lower than the last. There is one PL that is lower than the last and it is worth watching when the next one is formed. As long as the next one is higher that, structure is saved to the upside. The overall trend, if you look at the big picture is down and ugly. Investing here is risky and one I’m not willing to do yet. Those that are willing to take big risk are sometimes rewarded the most, so maybe the reward would make it worth it, but it’s not for me today. I made a great and bad move right at the beginning of the year that I’m still making up for, so not willing to risk again. I missed that move by 2 or 3 days. Good call, bad timing.

 

Friday the Bonds started there bull flag breakout but a few more trading days need to go by to verify this. There is really nothing new here Bonds and the grind higher continues. I will continue to ride it at least until the end of the month.