I’m back from my week and half vacation and it looks like I missed nothing. Everything you see or I write is based on 2 weeks worth of data. Looks like the grind is on. Soon or later this crap has to turn because right now if you compare my last years return and this year, it’s a 12% difference in the wrong direction.
There is a lot going on here with the daily S&P 500 chart and we are covering 2 weeks of data. I mentioned in the last post that 2033 needed to hold and price did that, but some bad things did happen here this past week. I also put the C-fund on a hold before I left which means if you were out, don’t buy and if your in, watch close. So price the last 2 weeks grinded sideways and then popped up to cancel the warnings. Then price fell back below the red horizontal line, which is the sell CBL. Not only did price fall below the CBL, but it also fell below the 50 day moving average. That would mean the second sell signal was fired and if there is follow through the following day, it’s a sell. All of what I just described happend last week and as of 5/19/16, Thursday, the C-fund is a daily sell.
It doesn’t end there. This is why the Dailiy trading is so hard and very difficult to make decisions with when making moves in the TSP. The Bull flag that I left you with 2 weeks is ugly and a little disorganized, but it is still in play. Something has to break here soon and even though the majority it is up, the current enviroment makes you feel it is going to fail. One last point. Price did close back above the 50 day moving average on Friday, but I can’t cancel the sell signal until price makes a new buy. Let me show you what is now required to do that.
So above is what you will next week. It has a new green horizontal line which is the Buy CBL level at $2065. We need a price close above that and confirmed the following day. Weekly and Daily, the C-fund is still a buy.
Talk about a mess, let’s talk Small Cap. When I left, the Small cap was a hold on the daily chart. Holding the $998 level was crucial and it did that but it is still in play. Price has been a sell warning 1 since 5/11/16. Then on 5/13 and 5/17, sell warning 2 was fired and only needed to be confirmed. The Sell on the daily chart was confirmed on 5/19, Thursday. So now I will have to setup and new buy chart for next week and I do not think it is important to really show you that. Are you ready for the next weird thing that happened with the Small Cap? It fired a weekly buy signal as of the close Friday. What a confusing mess we have in the markets right now.
The International is the only index with no current drama. Sideways grind and is still a sell on all 3 charts. The monthly and daily buy levels share the same point. $58.46. Price is also in the Bull Flag but it is a very sloppy pattern.
Talk about a surprise and a big one day stumble, Bonds!! The short term uptrend line in green failed. The red CBL line failed. Then the 50 day moving average failed all in the same day. So last Thursday, 5/19, Bonds confirmed a daily sell signal. So excluding the International that was already a daily sell, the C, S, and F all fired daily sells this week. Is this a sign that the markets are heading lower? It could be a heads up for sure and one we should note. As of 5/20/16 close is appears the overall market is heading lower. Let’s note that date and refer back and hope it is wrong.
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