TSP closing numbers as of 6/3/2016

Another good week on the stock market and another .5% knocked off my crummy start for 2016. I’ll just keep following my monthly moves and try to control my chances taking that I did at the beginning of the year. The I-fund is looking more and more like it is getting ready to bust to the upside, but I can’t bet on it. The S-fund which I’m in, is really looking like it wants to bust higher. But here is the but, no index is going to go to far without the C-fund joinning the party and it appears to dragging just a bit.

 

The S&P 500 basically had no movement at all last week and that in itself is concerning. But the real issue here in my opinion is that orange line overhead that marks the last major high and it is what we call overhead resistance. That needs to be taken out and failure todo so could lead to another major pull back in prices. You can look at the short term uptrend line in green and the overhead line in orange and see we are squeezint together. That means that something will break in one direction or the other fairly soon. The odds are that we stay with the current uptrend, but it’s not a guarantee. The only guarantee in the stockmarket is that price is going to move in one direction or the other. Which direction is just a guess. So basically no change from last week in the S&P.

 

The Small Cap on the other hand actually took out the overhead resistance and closed above that point. So one can only assume that next week, price should continue higher. I’ll be watching. The Small Cap was the best mover last week, so let’s hope this is just the beginning of a nice long run.

 

You could look at the recent bull flag breakout here in the International index and say that it looks to be stalling or even failing. Normal averages of the breakout equals the distance of the pole in the flag. That should be about 4 points or so which would take you to just over $62. We have a good ways to go and it needs to keep climbing. The other thing that is concerning is prices is creeping lower or sideways toward the new short term uptrend. I really do not want to see that broken yet. Will be watching next week for continuation higher.

 

How about Bonds on Friday!! It fired a daily buy signal that needs to be confirmed Monday of this coming week. If price stays above $111.06 by 11:30am Monday, then Bonds are a daily buy again. I’m still invested here, so this would just help assure that the trend is still on. The last thing to note here is that the last high was also taken out and closed above. You would have to assume that higher prices are in the future here.

 

Last year June was a loser month, so you have to assume the worse here. But, since most of the first half of the year has been awful, it would not surprise me to June 2016 finish to the plus side.