TSP closing numbers as of 7/2/16–Half the year is gone.

I have been tracking the gains with my monthly moves, because I do not always follow them religiously. So far for 2016 the monthly moves are basically even. .03% gain for 2016. My gain is not that great, but those that follow me here know that I do not always follow the monthly. So far, I’m not a good gut trader.

 

A couple things to point out here on the S&P 500 daily chart. First is that massive whipsaw from Brexit a week ago and then this week rip right back to the upside. I you were lucky enough to catch even part of that to the good side, well done you. If you bailed at the bottom, all I can say is ouch. I’m not totally convinced this is over and price doesn’t head lower. I’m just not sure what to make at this price structure. I think it is eerie that price stopped right below the last major resistance. I brightened that line from the past to show you. What will happen this time? Plow through it to the upside or bounce off and head back down. I do know this, the more times it is tested and fails, the more likely we will get a major reversal to the downside. Price needs to plow up through it and clear it. Price is currently above the 50 ma and monthly levels. The daily is still a sell until we get above the current green CBL line and confirm it. Volatility has falling to a normal level which is good for higher prices. The DMI is turning positive but we need the long-term trend indicator in blue to get above the red line. So in conclusion, this daily chart is an unknown and unsettling. Price could rip in either direction.

 

The Small Cap daily chart has some of the very same features that are found in the S&P 500. I think it is hilarious that price stopped almost perfectly on the resistance line. It makes me think that the next time the market opens for a full day of trading that we are going lower. Not a huge surprise either way because the last 4 trading days were also up. So it is going to be an interesting week again next week. Which way do we go? Price is above the 50 day ma, which is good but we are still a sell here also.

 

What can I say about the International index that I haven’t already said. What a mess. This chart is almost un-readable. My instincts are telling me it’s heading lower.

 

Bonds are by far the shinning star for 2016. Everythng here looks perfect and I will continue to ride it with 33% of my monies.

 

Conclusion: Our markets in the United States are closed until Tuesday. You could watch the overseas markets Monday to get an idea what is going to happen Tuesday here. I think next week we will be sideways or lower.