TSP Daily Charts as of 7/24/16

We had another good week on the markets with every index up. The Small Cap and S&P 500 are both hitting and making new highs, even though the Small Cap is only making YTD highs. The International is still struggling and might be setting up for lower prices. Bonds, they ae consolidating their recent highs and moving sideways at this moment. July is quickly coming to and end and is there is one thing that scares me is August. We started all that downward spiral and high volitility in August 2015. Looking back at just the Voltility chart and peeking at August, it is a little scary. So the question is, to follow the overall trend or chicken out and get out?

 

Everything looks good with the S&P 500. Rising 50 day ma. Rising Intermediate and primary trend. The S&P 500 is making new all time and YTD highs. Volitility is also at all time lows. Even the DMI at the bottom of the chart is starting to indicate we are entering a long term trend. The only thing that makes this scary is that it is almost to perfect. Only time will tell, but some would argue this is a time to run to safety and wait for a pullback.

 

The only different that I can say about the Small Cap vs the S&P is that the Smal Cap has not made all time new highs yet. $1141 is the all time high and we are sitting at $1074, so there is another 67 points to cover. That is another 6%.

 

The International did have a good week but it all recovery. Worst thing that I see here is a bear flag and the normal thing that happens when this breaks is that price goes down. This is a pattern that needs to fail, but the past is not a good sign. Still nothing to like here.

 

Bonds are still consolidating which it has done several times this year. Each time price has continued to grind higher. The only concern on the chart is the DMI which is showing signs that price is heading lower. Even if prices did start lower, expect a slow grind just like it has been while rising.

 

When you see the word Up on the chart that is a bad thing for stock. When the VIX spikes higher, stock prices go lower. This in no indication of what August 2016 will do, but the odds are better than normal that the VIX will spike up because we are close to an all time low on the VIX. Just treat this information as neat to know.