I know I have not posted charts in a couple of weeks and you would think that just maybe you missed something. With 3 of the indexes, you missed absolulety nothing. We have 1 index that made a daily and weekly buy, but I wouldn’t go out bragging about either chart. What I will say about it is that if you take in account the daily, weekly, and monthly as one, we may have us a very nice entry come Wednesday of next week.
If you look very closely at the expanded very of the S&P 500 chart, you will see to dark blue horizontal lines. We have been in this grind since July 14th. Up, down, up, down, and no progress made. This just could just be price consolidation that will explode to the upside very soon. Most of these grinds do not last much longer than 6 weeks. We are there now. Volatility is creeping up a little bit and that could be concerning. The DMI idex at the bottom of the chart is beginning to look negative. Green needs to stay on top of red in order to have a strong uptrend. This could be just the results of the long sideways grind. Lastly because of the long grind, we are very close to 1st sell warning on the daily chart. Nothing fear as of today.
I put that small dotted green uptrend line just to show that unlike the S&P, we do at least have an upside bias working here. It is painfully slow, but uphill it is. Price is currently safe and even the DMI at the bottom of the chart looks better than the S&P. Still waiting for a upside breakout.
Bonds also have been doing the grind dance. The only difference is that we have a wedge pattern which means we could have an earlier breakout than the rest. The squeeze is on and something has to give soon. The DMI is just a bit concerning. It curretly indicates to me that the breakout might be lower.
The overall look of this chart to the normal human is negative. It just has all kinds of downward slope. But there are a few things happening here that you have to notice. The primary red down trend line has been broken. That is always a very good early sign that trend is changing. On August 10th, the day I left for vacation, the daily chart fired a buy signal. I wold not have taken it. That same week, the weekly chart also fired a buy signal. Ok, now you’re starting to get my attention because that is a longer term indicator. Currently right now today, the monthly chart is in the buy format. We still have 3 more trading left in August so that could change and chage quickly on a bad day. But with all 3 charts all at the same basic time firing buy signals, you have to think we have a very early sign that the International index is giving an early entry long term. So we will have decisions to make come Wednesday next week.
Wednesday will be an interesting decison day. I could be moving into the I’fund for the first time in a long time. If I do, it will likely be 25% equal in all 4 primary funds.
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