The last week of October is over and Monday will end the month. I can tell you by end of the day Monday that 3 of our indexes will be a monthly sell leaving just one index that is a buy. The daily charts are deteriorating and paint a grim picture for the foreseeable future. One blog in particular that I read from time to time thinks we are heading for a big crash because of the scanning tools he uses. All I can see is red and it doesn’t seem to be slowing.
The S&P 500 faded all week to close right at the support level that I called out last week. In order for things not to fall apart here, that level needs to hold. Volatility moved up all week and the DMI continue to spread wider to the negative. If I was a betting man, I would bet we are heading lower.
The Small Cap had an awful week and broke below it’s important must hold level. This might be the leading indicator that will cause the rest to follow. Nothing looks good here.
The International had a bad week but looking at the chart not as bad as the Small Cap. The must hold level is holding and might hold a little hope that the Small Cap is wrong.
Remember that rise that I drew last week and showed you it failed 3 times on the Bond chart? It failed for the fourth time this week and the trend continues lower for Bonds.
Conclusion: Blah ! That’s my conclusion. It appears that all indexes at this moment in time are heading lower. Monday I expect the International, Bonds, and Small Cap to be a monthly sell unless we get a 1.5 to 2% rise in one day. The S&P 500 will still be a monthly buy unless we get a major collapse Monday. I do not feel confident that near term we are done going lower but guessing how much lower is just that, a guess.
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