Sunday, October 16, 2016

TSP daily charts as of 10/16/2016

It appears that my run of up months is going to end at 7 in a row with a loss for October. That rejection at the overhead resistance that has happened several times on several indexes might have finally wore out the buyers, which will give sellers control. Some long term uptrends are also failing. The daily charts are under pressure and it appears we are heading lower. Let’s take a look at the 4 indexes we follow in the TSP.

 

sp1-daily

The S&P 500 finally gave up this week and began an official break down lower. The sell CBL never recovered over the last 10 trading days. The 50 day moving average has turned lower and price is below the 50 day ma. The most concerning thing to me is that long term uptrend line failed Thursday and Friday. Yes we could get a quick snap back up next week, but a signal is a signal and that signal was sell. The DMI is spreading wider to the negative. I’m looking for a positive on this chart and I cannot find one. That overhead resistance that was tested 4 times in the past 3 months may have finally wore the buyers down.

C-sell-dailyC-buy-weeklyC-buy-Monthly

 

$1dwcpf

I had mention a couple of times that the Small Cap indicators were all going to converge at one point and something was going to have to break one way or the other. Thursday and Friday last week that happened and unfortunately they broke lower. The 50 day ma turned lower and price settled below it. The CBL sell line broke and fired a sell. That major uptrend line, broke! Overhead resistance appears to have exhausted buyers here and sellers are now in control. DMI is also spreading to the negative. I can find nothing positive on the daily chart.

S-sell-dailyS-buy-weeklyS-buy-monthly

 

efa1

The International index was in the infant stage of a new uptrend and unfortunately when in this stage, it doesn’t take much to fail. The CBL sell line failed and confirmed a sell. The 50 day ma also turned lower and price closed below. There was only a short term uptrend line here and even though it hasn’t failed yet, it is under attack.

I-sell-dailyI-buy-weeklyI-buy-monthly

 

agg1

No change for Bonds. Price continues to sink lower and follows the channel. The 50 day moving average also sinking lower. Bonds have been a daily sell for awhile, so nothing new here.

F-sell-dailyF-buy-weeklyF-buy-monthly

 

Conclusion: When everything turns bad, some of the pros start buying. Could we get a snap back to the upside? Sure, anything is possible but I think next week it will continue lower for a bit more to shake out investors and send them to saftey, then the big money will come in a scoop up stocks at lower prices. We have 2 more trading weeks before monthly moves are called, so it will be interesting to see what happens at the end of the month. Why? Right now on the monthly charts, C and S funds are still a buy and I and F are a sell.

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