We have indexs going up and we have indexes going down. We have an index breaking out and we have index attempting to break. We also have an index breaking down through a long term trend. So let’s take a look at what we have.
Here we are again with the S&P 500. Right back at the Overhead resistance that seems to be unbreakable. This is the 6th time since August 15th and price has yet to trade above $2193.81 even during a daily session and then settle lower. Next week is a short week, so not really sure what to expect here. Last year we traded flat during the Thanksgiving week and there after, prices fell. The brightside here is that volatility is down and the DMI is positive. Last year the DMI was a mess.
The Small is the shinning star of our indexes and a breakout is official. How far to expect it to run before a pull back can be measured but it just a guess. I’ve said this many times, there is nothing that is for sure in the stockmarket and no one can forecast the future. A best guess is all you can expect. A measured move up from the breakout point is $81.99 or 82 points higher. That would take us to $1188ish before we should see a real consolidation or pull back. That’s a 7.4% rise. Do you bank on it? No, it’s a measureed move and a guess. All we can do is watch and ride.
The International continues to sink lower. Prices are searching for support, but nothing is holding. The DMI at the bottom of the chart also indicates that prices should continue lower. My gut is telling me here that a rising dollar is the cause of this and when that stops or reverses, the International will likely reverse. This index for now should be avoided because it is a sell on all there charts.
Bonds are taking another step to make things even worse. Price is breaking down through a long term uptrend line that has been running since September 2013. That’s a 3 year trend that is beginning to break down. I expect Bonds to find support at $108, which is only .37 cents away. A break down below that could be even a more negative sign. This is a watch, but we have been out of bonds since the first part of October.
Conclusion: Lot’s of good and bad in the market right now and yes it makes me nervous. With that large and fast run up in prices in the Small Cap, it makes me want to pull out of the market and just go all G. The S&P 500 is testing resistance again and if it fails, down we go. Once again making me want to pull out. Bonds and International are a mess and appear to heading lower. Once again, it’s going to be an interesting few weeks.
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