It was a tough year for me because of a move I made back in January and February of 2016. By the time the month of February had ended, I was down 7.45%. Not a great way to start the year. I was still making moves based on daily charts and my own gut feelings at times. I knew the monthly moves would never be the big winner because it is based on getting in and out on long term moves, so I thought I could out smart it. I finally surrendered out of frustration by the end of February and decided for the remaining of the year I would just move in and out of the market using my monthly moves. It took until the end of November, but I finally saw a peek of green. So as December and 2016 came to a close, I ended the year up.
2017 will be a year of transition for me and it is something I’ve been telling people about for at least 4 to 5 years. Since the Summer of 2010, I’ve been learning and conditioning myself to be able to run my TSP after I retired and no more new money was coming in. You still have to run and monitor your TSP account even into retirement. You can’t afford to sit back and let a 2008 / 2009 event devistate your account. You also can’t just sit back and do nothing but g-fund money. If Interest rates go up in the near future and pushes the G-fund into a yearly return of 4% plus, then maybe you do have an arguement for that position.
The last thing that I want to say to those that know me and see me on a regular basis, is Yes, I will continue to run my TSP blog into retirement and will also try to let those that still work how things are working in retirement. It is always a mystery to us that work how things work once we step out of the work force. So, now that I’m done rambling, let’s look at the year in closing numbers, monthly moves, and daily charts.
The S&P 500 daily is looking a little grim at the moment because it is doing the opposite of what you would expect coming out of a bull flag. 75% of the time, prices break out to the upside when exiting a bull flag. After the last 3 days of trading, prices fell out the bottom of that flag. To add a little more drama here, the DMI is about to crossover to the negative and volatility is rising. None of this looks good for the immediate future as far as the uptrend is concerned. Price is also very close to also falling below the CBL sell level. So the short term view looks shaky and we will not know until trading starts up again in 2017.
The closing price on the monthly chart as of December 30th is well above the 10 period moving average, so the C-fund a buy going into January 2017.
The Small cap daily is also starting to break out the bottom of the bull flag. The CBL sell level is safe at the moment and little better off than the S&P 500, but it is concerning. DMI crossover to the negative also looks emminate. So I do not like what I’m seeing short term with the Small Cap or the S&P 500 and will hope that it will reverse when the markets open next week.
The Small Cap monthly closing price was well above the 10 period moving average, so it’s a buy.
The International index appears it is trying to make another attempt at rising prices. But, there are some conflicting signals here to point out. Volatility is rising. The DMI is crossing over to the positive. You can’t see it here, but if you could see the price action the last day of trading, you would see that it faded all day long into the closing. That’s not a strong conviction that we are heading higher. This to me is still a chart that is just to hard to read.
The International index closing price is still below 10 period moving average, so monthly the I-fund is a sell.
The daily chart for Bonds is still a mess but as you can see, the last 3 days price is showing signs of life. It is also possible that a bottom has been formed. The only way we will know is time. We need more information. The DMI appears to be in crossover mode, so it is something else on the chart that indicates that we may be bottoming. Once again, we need more information and time.
Bond index closing price is still way below the 10 period moving average, so it is still a monthly sell.
Conclusion: The beginning of the year always scares me because we are starting a 0% gain or loss. Daily things look a bit shaky, but the S&P 500 and Small Cap are stil indicatiing we are heading higher. So based on the monthly charts I will start the year where I ended 2016, 50-50 C and S.
Here is hoping for great 2017 and Happy New Year to all.
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