TSP closing numbers and charts as of 4/15/17

 

This has to be one of the longest running bull flags that I can remember. The longer it goes, the more likely this is going to break to the downside. Lot’s of little negative signs are building here. The CBL and 50 day ma both broke down again this week and sell warning 1 and 2 fired. The official sell level today is the uptrend line and it moves up with each passing trading day. At the beginning of next week it will be $2246 and by the end of the week, $2251. Price needs to start rising soon. Things that seem to be saying that is not going to happen are, volatility rising and DMI spreading to the negative. My confidence longterm is beginning to turn negative. 

 

Will I bailout here? No. Monthly we still have lot’s of room to run lower. The chart above is a daily and is just giving us a heads up that things “might” be changing. The monthly keeps us in and out of the markets, and long term helps us avoid all the noise. 

 

 

 

The Small Cap still remains the led on our index to the downside. The DMI here has been negative for awhile and once again spread wider by the end of the week. Sell warning 1 & 2 are back on. I did mark on the S&P, Small Cap, and International the sell lines. Just like the S&P, if price doesn’t start moving to the upside soon, by default we will have a sell signal.

 

 

The International is still the best risk index we have. It is holding firm but is showing signs of weakness. The most glaring is volatility is rising. DMI is softening and appears that it might turn negative next week. We have no sell warnings yet, but it doesn’t get any closer. Unfortunately here, sell warning 1,2, and official sell levels are so tight, it could happen in one trading day. Just like the other 2 indexes, price needs to rise. 

 

 

Bonds seem to be showing signs of life here. When money starts to move from one index to another, or said a different way, taking profits, we have a rotation. Rotating out of one type of money making vehicle and into another. Since the S&P and Small Cap seem to be moving lower, is this a sign that big money is moving to the safety of Bonds? Rotating out of high risk and into safety? Only time will tell but it does appears that Bonds are now on the move. Monthly? It is getting very close to being a buy. We are within 50 cents.

 

 

Conclusion: I think by the end of April we will have a resolution on direction with all 4 indexes. So many levels and indicators on each chart are all merging into one spot. Something has to give. Normally when price breaks out of bull flag, they continue in the direction of trend. But, the longer they run, the lower those odds play out. So as of today, instead of a 75% chance or more that we break higher, I think we are down to 50-50.