Old Dix TSP Blog: TSP daily charts as of 5/20/2017

What can you say about the International fund so far this month? The I-fund is up 3.22% in that last 20 days. Yeah, I wish I was 100% I-fund, but that’s not how this game is played. We play the monthly moves which helps us make logical decisions and not emotional decisions. No news, no gossip, and no reading articles to put us on edge. We make mechanical moves based on chart data that has no emotions and we do it 12 times a year. We will never earn the most but we will never lose the most. We fly like turtles.

The S&P 500 took a hit Wednesday and Thursday on a bit of Trump news, but snapped back on Friday. Sell warnings fired and sell warnings were cancelled. Drama! Volalitity spike and also backed off. DMI also turned negative. We are still safe monthly and trading based on all this drama is nerve wracking. Tune it out. Even if things with the S&P turned seriously negative, we would have to lose another 100 points to hit a sell. We ride it out.

The Small is the most concerning index we have and one to stayed focused on. Sell warning 1 and 2 fired Wednesday and they are still in effect. Since we are in an uptrend overall, the current downward run in prices has the formation of another Bullflag. It is about 3 weeks old now, so a breakout in one direction or the other is due. We would still have to drop another 75 points here in order to fire an official sell monthly. This type of actons sucks to watch, but we ride it out.

The International also flinched Wednesday and Thursday but wiped out all that drama on Friday. The I-fund has been our shinning star and has basically saved our monthly setup of almost equal portions spread between the C,S, and I. Even as bad as this week was overall, we ended up with a gain of .08%. The I-fund is positive on all indicators.

Once again Bonds are a daily buy. Back and forth we go. I do not think we have enough moves a month to keep up with Bonds. Funny thing is, Bonds should not move this much. If today were May 31st, Bonds would also be a monthly buy. How close is it? 4 cents! So I think Bonds are turning to the upside and we will likely be spread out in all 4 indexes. It could be June or July, but I do believe it is going to happen. For now, we just sit back and watch the show.