So you do not have to wait until next Friday when I put out the closing numbers to see my last 12 month PIP, here it is, 19.18%. That’s down .4% after taking my first loss since October 2016. One of out indexes made a very impressive move and it was a move that we needed.
The only retirement news that I have for you this week is that I got my second paycheck and it is still an interim check. Not a big deal, but I’m sure a few of you are curious how long it takes to begin receiving your permanent payout. Also there was another massive wave of retirments this week where I use to work and all I can say is, welcome. I have found that I am busier now, than when I worked. Having no requirement to conform to a schedule is very nice. It will not take long for you to adjust to that, so enjoy.
The S&P 500 made a very nice 3 day move to cancel all sell warnings by Friday. Now price is approaching all time highs. Volatility is low and the DMI appears to be turning positive. Price could stall here between $2475 and $2480. If you look backwards on the chart above you can see 15-20 days of grinding at those price levels. If this latest move up has true conviction, it will actually plow right through those levels and continue higher. All will be told next week.
The Small Cap in my opinion has been leading our other indexes for at least the last 6 weeks or so. The problem is that it has been leading prices lower. The Small Cap was the only index we had that was a daily sell and was rapidly closing in on being a monthly sell. Last week all that changed in 4 days. Not sure what drove price up, but I really do not care. If you are new to my blog and system, I do not listen to news, chatter, or anything else that clutters my mind. I watch price. Price has no emotions, unlike humans. By Friday, price had fired a buy signal and by the end of the day Friday, price also confirmed a daily buy. The Small Cap was once again leading the markets higher. The DMI has also turned positive. So now the real question is, what happenes next week? The steap angle uphill cannot last long, but a run to the last high would not surprise me. A pause at that high would also be normal. What I do not want to see is a sharp reversal next week that takes us below the last pivot low. That would be around $1195.
The International index did not follow the big move of the Small Cap, but price did rise enough where that overhead resistance level is going to be tested again next week. The more times it is tested and and fails, the more likely we are heading lower. We need price to break through and stay above $67.21. Volatility is low and positive. DMI is still a mixed picture. I’ll be watching this index closely next week to see what happens.
Friday, Bonds took a big hit down. The meaning at this point in unknown and if you look back about a month, it has happened before and price just continue to climb higher. Price is still above the 50 da ma and CBL. Price trend is also still intact. So it is too early to know what that big move means today and will just have to be watched. Volatility is positive. The DMI is positive but that sharp move Friday did have a negative affect.
Conclusion: We need the Small Cap to conitnue to leading us higher and I will have all eyes on it next week. We could be testing all time highs and going higher next week. All indexes we follow here are a buy, so being invested is good. Whatever configuration you have in your retirement investement setup is good as long as you not running straight G. If you are that afraid of the markets, you should at least be invested in the L-income. At least there you can almost keep pace with inflation.
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