Hi TSPers! As soon as the TSP.gov people post the closing numbers, I will update the chart above. What a nice week we had the first full week of October. Prices to me on the Small Cap and S&P 500 look a little overcooked, so a pullback in the near future would not be shocking. We have had some tremendous gains, so even a 5% pullback would not even hurt much.
On a retirement front, I got a letter from OPM today asking me to finalize my selection of type of retirement. I was a little surprised to see this since I made that selection on the forms when I filled them out and submitted months ago. The form they sent me is a Retirement Provision Election. I have 2 choices. ATC MRA+30 annuity, and Regular ATC annuity. If I select the first choice, no raises on my FERS annuity until I reach the age of 62, but I get 1.7% for each year of service. The second choice gives me 1.7% on the first 20 years and 1% for the remaining and I get raises. I’ll take my chances and select choice 1. I have enough in my TSP account that I will be ok. So the final numbers came in and I was pleased. The estimates that I got 9 months ago compared to the actual reported to me today was within $10. According to some of the previous retirees that I have spoken to in recent months, I will also get back pay on all annuity checks received to date and correct annuity payment when it is all settled. Let’s just say I’m pleased with the actual amount compared to the estimated paymets. I was getting a little worried they had screwed something up.
So it has been 98 days since my actual retirement day and 188 days since I filed. I now have a final reported annuity amount. When I actually start getting that final amount, is still an unknown.
On a personal front, what a summer I had. I know we all lead busy lives and some have it worse than others, but I do feel like this summer pounded me into the ground at times. But as of this week, everything is falling into place and things are clearing up quickly. I bought a fixer upper in February and I will be moving into that October 25th. Current house sold in 2 days at full price, no contingencies, and we will close october 25th. In June, I retired after working since I was 16 years old and that in itself was a scary thought, but one I have embraced. My oldest boy got married and he and his new bride will be home from their honeymoon in a couple of days. I think they enjoyed their time in Hawaii. My other son and wife gave us our first granddaughter just 6 weeks ago. She is precious. I have been going round and round with my mother’s healthcare and some of my siblings, but next Friday, my brother and I will finally get her moved into her final home, a retirement home, so she will have proper care and live out her days in comfort and be close to family. In recent days I have spent a lot of quality time with family and I’ve learned that family, good or bad, is vital to all of us.
So my life in about 3 weeks is gonna slow down to a peaceful crawl and I’m going to just sit back and say, ahhhhh. Gonna book a flight to the islands and relax for week or two. So life always works out for those that work hard, stay on track, and wait until the end to get their reward. I’m glad that I fought through all the BS and didn’t quit when I got frustrated and tired because sometimes things didn’t go my way. I’ve been lucky to receive many life lessons in that past year and I hope I've learned them well.
Now, To the Charts.
The S&P 500 has been rolling the last 8 trading days. Price has also been making all time highs. Volatility is low which is great for prices moving up. Take a look at that DMI. It is extrremely positive and I think a bit overcooked. I’ll take the momentum up for as long as wants to run, but it would not surprise me too see prices retreat a little next week.
Take look at that rip. The Small Cap has been running for awhile, but this week it just makes the chart look so impressive. Just like the S&P, the Small Cap is also making all time highs almost everyday. The DMI is also extremely positive and you would think soon that a slow down is coming. Nothing runs uphill forever and the Small Cap is due a slow down or consolidation. Someone smarter than me would get out of the markets now and just wait for a pull back, but I’m sticking with my monthly moves. We ride because no one knows when the top has been reached.
The International has not been participating in the same run uphill that the S&P and Small Cap. Volatility is low and would indicate that prices should be rising. The DMI is positive, but is turning lower. We have been waiting a long time for the I-fund to bust higher recently, but it just keeps grinding higher ever so slowly. Keep in mind that the I-fund has risen over 20% in 2017, so a slow grind higher here is not all that surprising either. We continue to ride until the monthly says to bail.
Bonds continue to move lower. Unless you are in an L-fund, you should not be invested here. DMI is saying stay away. Price struture is saying stay away. The weekly chart that I do not show here, is getting ready to fire a sell signal soon. I predict 2 weeks max with more downside on price and that will happen. I see no reason to invest in bonds.
Conclusion: The C and S are smoking and smart people might bail here and wait for lower prices. I have seen this show a few times and no one can time it perfectly everytime. So, I will stay mechanical here and wait for the monthly charts to tell me to get out. I know and accept that I will never get out at the high and I’ll never get in at the bottom. What I strive for is to take the majority of all uptrends and stay out for the majority of the downtrends. What I call, taking the meat out of the middle.
Remember in life. Keep working toward your goals no matter how hard they seem because eventually you will win. You have to work hard and have faith, and everything will workout to the good. The weak will always fail and look for a simple unrewarding solutions.
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