Wow, another good week on the stock market for the C and S and if you have been following my monthly moves, you should be reaching all time highs on your account. I have no doubt that things will slow down or correct sometime in the future but since I cannot predict that, we should ride the wave. I did a very quick look at the monthly charts this week and we would need a 5% correction to the downside to fire sells on the C, S, and I. That would hurt, but considering the gains that I have accumulated since April 2016, I’m ok with that.
I got this from one of my followers this week and it made me feel good to know this young person that is just getting started running their account is learning early how to manage their TSP. Nothing worse than not taking time to learn how to manage and ride the good and bad times in the stock market. Don’t be afraid to make moves!
Their message to me, “Check this out!”
I absoultely love seeing this from my followers.
Personal notes: Everyone knows that I retired in June and all the final pay numbers have come in and it took 3 months. This week is moving week for me. The project home that I have been working on since February 2017 is ready for me and I’m moving in. I have lot’s of plans for remodeling baths and adding a garage, but it's livable and we are making the move. The only reason I mention this, is there is a slight chance I will not be posting closing numbers and a daily chart update next weekend because Internet connection has not been setup or decided on. I will have the monthly charts and moves posted no matter what at the end of the month.
The S&P 500 has been cruising along since mid-August, but last Friday we got a nice pop to all time highs. Volatility is low and positive. The DMI indicates this trend could continue for a long time and it is a strong trend. When this trend stops is hard to find at the moment because all the underlying indicators are so strong.
For the last 10 trading days the Small Cap had formed and was running inside a Bull Flag. In case you missed me saying it in the past, 75% of the time, Bull flags always break to the upside to continue the current uptrend. Once a Bull Flag breaks out, you can predict a measured move to where it will likelt run to before it slows or reverses. Without making this to long winded and technical, after I drew the flag pole and did the math from the breakout point, we are looking at a 70 point run to the upside. That will take price to $1374 or another 5% move to the upside. Do not expect it to happen in one day or a week, but overtime. I would expect a nice slow grind up for the next 4 to 6 weeks to reach that level. The DMI is also indicating we have a strong uptrend.
The International did not follow the C and S moving higher last week. In fact it looks like the International is forming a Bull Flag. Volatility is low which is positive and the DMI is positive. The International recently has been grinding uphill much slower than the C and S, but that should be expected since the I-fund has run YTD more than 21% to the plus side for 2017. It would have been awesome being 100% invested in the I-fund only this year, but it comes with high risk and not a smart move for older investors. You need to have a blend that gives you a little comfort in knowing that if everything crashes, parts of your investment will remain steady. Each investor has a risk tolerance and no matter what someone tells them, will not change that investment fear. So to each their own when making that decision. I will remain 33% invested in the I-fund and ride it.
It was just a week ago that Bonds was firing a buy signal. That signaled failed last Monday and continue to get worse for the remaining of the week. We do not make moves based on daily charts, but it is used as an indicator that a trend is changing and maybe a monthly move will be affected soon. It could be an early sign for and entry or and early sign of an exit. After last weeks move, it just confirms that the monthly sell for Bonds, is really a monthly sell. Unless you are invested in the L-funds, we have no interest in investing in Bonds.
Conclusion: I have been expecting a pause or pull back in all 3 primary indexes, C, S, and I, for a few weeks now. So far that has not happened and prices continue to run. What you should learn from this is that you cannot make decisions with your gut and be right every single time. You need a mechanical with no emotion decision process. The only method I have found over the course of all my research since 2008, are the monthly charts. They let me sleep. So, even though my gut is telling me a pullback is approaching, I stay in and ride.
In the next few weeks, I am considering taking Old Dix TSP private. Just a brief history. I started this in 2008 because I was losing to much money and I could not sleep. It’s been a long road to get here. I also run this as a history to myself so I can look back and see what I said and how things played out. I also run this for my 2 sons so they can use it to make decisions with their retirement. I have over 100 followers who I cannot identify and have no clue who you are. I have about 5 or 6 users that I know and they always give me some type of feedback and that is another reason why i have continued as I have thus far. I appreciate that you think enough of my information and style to follow me and to help you make your retirement decisions. I know there are pages out there that charge people money for advice and I'll show you a few right here.
I think my returns over the last few years, the extra information I put out there, and the calm rational method to manage your retirement account, has value. But here is the primary reason for me considering this move. If I charge $10 a month for my monthly moves, weekly updates, and daily chart report and I have no one that is interested, then I can just do this for myself and boys and stop dedicating all the time it takes creating these post. Sometimes in life we need justification for what we do, I think I am approaching this point. I told people that I was close with at work that I would continue to run this thing after I retired and I have. I really do not need the money and those close to me know that. But, going this route would justify my time. It would not take many users willing to pay for my time for me to continue this. 5 users, $10 a month is enough for me to say ok, they want it, they need it, so I will do it. Not looking to make myself rich, believe me, I have enough and my needs are low. But like I said, justification for what I put out here is what I am looking for.
I will run OLD DIX TSP blog as it is at least through 2017 while I research all my options. By january 1, 2018, I’ll make that decision to continue as is, or go private.
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