End of month numbers April 2013

TSP Distribution:  C-fund 50%, S-fund 25%, I-fund 25%

Well how about that? There was a lot of red in the month of April but by the end of the of the month, we finished in the green. So what fund did everyone avoid the most this month? I think without taking a poll the International fund would be the winner and if you look at the monthly returns above, you will see the International fund kicked butt at 5.02%. Even I missed 99% of that move, but I will not cry about money I never had in my hand. I actually lost .84% in the month of April because I bailed on the Small Cap. I did what price was telling me to do, so that’s the way it goes. April was a very shaky month unless you used the weekly charts and if you did that, you made more money than anyone else. The Daily charts are harder to follow and sometimes the speed in which they move, will create a head fake or two. As long as I stay inside my rule book and reach my goals, I’m good. This is not a race to see if I can beat the market or beat my buddy, but stop the double digit losses and make 7% or more a year.

So what can we expect in May? Personally knowing the what happen the last few months, has me a little nervous considering my distribution you can see above. Next concern is that since last Friday, I bought (F) Ford, (GIS) General Mills, (KORS) Michael Kors, (AAPL) Apple, (SCI) Service Corp., (VB) Small Cap ETF, (IVV) S&P 500 ETF, and (VEU) International ETF. So, I’m kind of seriously long the market as of April 30th, 2013 because price movement is telling me to buy. I still have enough money to start one more position in another stock, but nothing is on my radar at this moment in time. Sometimes I just hold that money until one of my current position takes off and then I purchase more of that stock.

What I want to show you is the last 3 May’s, 2010, 2011, 2012. Not a pretty picture.

So if you took the time to open those monthly charts of the last 3 May’s, you will understand my concern. Trader’s and News Reporters have a memory and you will likely hear about it, if you haven’t already. That doesn’t mean it will go down again this year, so I will continue to follow price as part of my lessons to myself to see where we end up.

I think if we break and hold above $1597 on the S&P, we are going to roll. Small Cap did a little breakout today and the International just keeps on impressing me. Bonds did fall a little today, but even it is holding up well. So, make choice! Which way do you think it will go?