Old Dix TSP Blog: TSP Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly numbers.

Well after such a brutal year last year it is to good to see what a great first quarter we have had this year. The S-fund was up 14% followed by the C at 12% and the I almost 11%. All of the L-funds of course did very well ranging fro 11% to almost 3%. This was also the 3rd month of gains for all indexes except Bonds. This week price action was almost Identical of that the week before in that Monday had a big up move and then Tuesday through Thursday down, followed by an up day Friday. Unlike last week though, this week we ended up with a gain for the week on all indexes. So let’s look at some price action below.

What I want to show is how buyers came in a supported the $1398 level in the S&P 500. You can see the massive price spike Monday morning and hold on Tuesday. But then things got ugly. Wednesday we gave it all back but the buyers came to the rescue at $1398 and forced a close at $1405. Thursday it really did look like the wheels were coming off but once again buyers push prices back above $1398 and closed at $1403. Friday we had a small test but remained up most of the day and closed at $1408. So once again, price dipped and buyers came to the rescue. It was also a bad sign for the bears because that is two weeks in a row that things looked like they were going to fall apart only to have them recover.

Now look at the daily chart of the S&P500 and you will see the major green uptrend line is still in tact and is not threaten at this time. The 50 day moving average is also well below price. It is really hard to find a reason to be negative about the market looking at these charts. I will admit that when you have a long run like we have had since mid-November, you have to start thinking pullback. I have to have a reason. I’m not just going to pull out of the market because the uptrend has been running a long time. The next chart I will show, I will try to show you what I’m looking for.

The yellow box in the middle of the chart shows us what a warning looks like. The second box is screaming for an exit. What is is fascinating here is that first box is dated 3/10/2011 of last year. Then on June 6th it is actually screaming to exit. The chart looks eerily like the run we have had year to date but we have had no warnings yet. So let’s look at the same style chart current to date and compare and I think you will see that it is not a time to pull out of the market.

So here we have the current status of the S&P 500 and you have to admit that there is just nothing saying get out. Not even a quiver. Does that mean we are safe or good to run? No it doesn’t. It just means that to date we have had no warnings so we have to wait for future data to make decisions. I will never call a bottom or a top, so you will never get out at the top or bottom. The important part it to run with the trend as long as it allows you to do so.