Been out of town since Thursday with no Internet connection. Ugh!! This week was a blood bath and Monday morning we will see another drop between 1 to 1.5%. Bailing from the International, I-fund, look emanate. The C and S? It may be time to run to safety and see were the chips fall. We now have warnings on all charts and I will attempt to get them up tomorrow.
Above we have 3 charts of the I-fund and which have 5 point among them showing distinct points that are giving warning that things might warrant a pullout. Starting from the left the first and most important warning is a break down of the current up trend. Yes, sometimes it will just test it briefly and climb back to or above the line, but it is a warning. Next you will notice the sharp turn down of the blue ma’s and also the slight turn down of the purple ma’s. To me it looks like follow though, but only time will tell. The next chart is a major concern because it shows how price has broken down through the 50 day ma. Most of the time that this happens, price will continue down a minimum of 2 to 3 weeks. In the last chart, the weekly, we see that price closed below both the 10 and 30 week ma. We also see the 10 ma turning down. There are 5 very clear signals here among these charts and even though the 10 and 30 week ma’s have not crossed yet on the weekly chart, I cannot see being in this fund worth the risk. Just know that Monday is going to be a continuation of the selloff and it will be painful to bailout if you make that choice.
Above we have3chartsfor the S&P500, 2 dailies and 1 weekly. The first to the far left is a daily chart that shows the early warnings of the green uptrend line breaking down. The blue trend lines are starting to rollover but the purple is still rising. It is a chart that we will have to watch. The 2nd chart is showing that we could have a 2% drop Monday and still be safe as far as the 50 day ma is concerned. It would be very tight, but we have room here to let the shock of Monday go by and wait to see what the rest of the week brings.The last chart is the weekly and you will see that we still have a very strong uptrend even as of last Thursday. I will not bail here Monday, but I will be posting daily after the move to let you know my intentions.
The above 3 charts are of the Small Cap, 2 dallies and 1 weekly. The first to the far left is showing once again early signs that things are slowing and rolling over. The 2nd chart shows that we have a little room for a down turn, but not as much as the S&P500. We only have about 1% before that 50 day ma is under attack and we would have to consider pulling out here. The last chart is the weekly and you can really see the trend flattening out and if we have a bad week, a down turn will show. The small cap is under watch, like the the S&P, but has to watched a bit closer.
Conclusion: All trend will end and all trends will pause before they continue. Which we have in development here will only be known after the fact. Yes it would be nice which we have in front of us, but who wouldn’t want to know that information. Watching the charts will help with the news by taking the emotion out of your decisions, but you have to watch them. I will pull out of the I-fund Monday morning and roll that money into the G. I will watch the other 2 indexes closely and if price warrants it, I will bail to G also. Hopefully this will be a one day event and if so, I will still have one move left to put my money back work into the C or S. I do not see the I-fund recovering short term. Next week is going to hot and emotional. Just remember if you bail out, you still should end up with a 8.5 to 10% gain for the year even if Monday falls 2%.
TSP Distribution: C-fund 25%, I-fund 25%, S-fund 50%
Expect this change Monday TSP Distribution: C-fund 25%, G-fund 25%, S-fund 50%
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