TSP Closing numbers as of 9/23/16–Nice pop but beware.

After a week like this where every index was up over 1%, except bonds, why would I say beware? Well I’ve said it before and I will say it again, if price continues to hit resistance and then falls or bakcs off of it, sooner or later price will fail and a major pull back will happen. We hit those levels Thursday and Friday we backed off. Let’s look at the charts.

 

Even after such a good week on the markets, I’m still a bit concerned. Price moved back up into the channel that we spent 3 to 4 weeks in but failed to move up and out. The overhead resistance is the top of the channel is and it’s $2190. We have been here a total of 3 times and 3 times we were rejected. It is a level to keep a eye on. I am still going to leave the watch on the C-fund because price still closed below the last sell CBL. I am also watching the DMI because it appears to be attempting to move back to positive.

 

The Small Cap made the best move via the charts here because price rose high enough to cancel the hold on the daily. We did bounce off the near high for the year but it is only the second time we have visited this level. Still we have to watch the $1106 level here. DMI is positive. Overall, the Small Cap is all good.

 

The International price did rise high enough to cancel the hold warnings. We are back above the 50 day and CBL levels. The but here is that this is the fourth time we have bounce off $60.17 and have not been ablve to even trade temporaily aboue that level. This does concens me and we will have to watch. DMI is positive.

 

Since Bonds have been a daily sell now for a couple of weeks, there is really no overhead resistance here yet. We are still trying to get above the green CBL level which is $112.56. DMI is attempting to turn positive but is still a work in progress.

 

Conclusion: The overall market is back at year to date highs and many are at resistant levels. Next week, a nice 1/2 to 1% price rise in prices would go along way in solving this problem. What I expect based on recent trading activity is sideways to slightly lower. The more times this happens, the more likely prices will collapse. Predicting that collapse using the monthly is very difficult but the damage long term should be small based on the fact that the monthly average are cosing in on current price levels. Monthly moves will be next Fridays post. Yes, another month is coming to a close.