Ok this is the part of my analysis that loses a lot of people and is more in depth. It also required a lot more attention watching price movement because it is a daily process. If the rules allowed more than 2 moves month, it would be easy at certain times to make multiple moves based on what’s happening daily in the stock market. So many different opinions and options on how to monitor your retirement account, but this method works best for me and I could spend many hours trying to make some understand it. So let’s get started.
The International index has been causing me to watch like a hawk for the last 10 trading days. It looked like it was time to bail, then it looked like it was going to reverse, and now it looks like it may just go sideways for awhile and consolidate. Points to note is that the overall Primary uptrend is safe and intact. Price is clearly above a rising 50 day moving average. The 50 day is slowing down, but is still rising. The 200 day is still rising. My CBL line is holding and now is acting as the support line. Now the negatives. The intermediate uptrend line is broken and can only be fixed if price reverse soon to the upside. The last pivot high was lower than the previous and if you get a series of those, then a downtrend will be confirmed. Next week if price falls below the CBL, it will not take much to put this under the 50 day moving average and I will bail. But for now, I think price is going to grind sideways for at least a few more trading days. Since it is a Bull Flag, I looking for a break to the upside.
Conclusion: I will leave my 20% in this index until we get resolution in one direction or the other.
Above is Bonds. Based on the Daily charts, Bonds got an exit signal 12/3/12 and has never looked back. There is not much to like here and if the S&P500, Small Cap, and International looked like this chart, I would 100% G. There is a solid downtrend working and the 50 day is falling. The 200 day is rolling over and things look pretty grim for bonds. On the bright side, once again price appears to building a base or support for the last 11 trading days. Price is very close to my buy into CBL line in green but that is just 1 of 3 signals that have to fire before I would consider and move into bonds. Price would also have to close above the 50 day moving average and the above the downtrend line.
Conclusion: I will continue to avoid bonds and or the F-fund until the picture looks a little better.
Above on the left is the S&P 500 and then the Small Cap. If you can find anything on these chart that you do not like, your not a bull. What your looking for then is a reason to bailout or a reason to be a bear. Since in our retirement account we cannot short stocks, we ride the wave and when it turns against us, we bail to anything fund. Small Cap looks to be an unstoppable force and it is the big winner of 2013 up over 9%.
Conclusion: Stay in the C and S and milk this run for what it is worth.
I also monitor the Sector Select ETF’s and there are 9 of those in different industries. All look good for future rise in the markets with the exception of one. Materials have slowed down and have been consolidating in a Bull Flag for over 2 weeks. In my personal stock account, I’m 100% invested and if I had more funds, I have 3 other stocks I would really like to own. Normally when the markets get shaky, all my positions get stopped out and I’m sitting all cash. So right now I still do not see any reason to be playing it safe even though I have notice a little slow down in prices rising. I’m staying invested in stocks and retirement account for at least another week.
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